Insight | Does Trump Dare Bet on America’s Energy Future—Simply Because China’s Wind and Solar Power Are Simply Too Strong?

Today's U.S. energy policy bears the unmistakable imprint of Trump. Trump has passionately embraced fossil fuels while fiercely opposing wind, solar power, and electric vehicles—topics that have garnered widespread attention. Yet, there’s also a more moderate side to Trump’s energy policies, reflecting the continuity and stability that characterize U.S. energy strategy—though these aspects tend to receive less public focus.

 

Trump seeks to gain greater profits in industries such as oil and gas.

 

The energy industry is a nation's foundation and holds strategic significance. Trump has actively pursued greater gains in the energy sector, particularly evident in industries such as oil & gas and nuclear energy.

 

In the oil and gas industry, Trump hopes to significantly boost U.S. profits.

 

Oil and gas are high-carbon energy sources, and the combustion of vast quantities of oil and gas products is a major contributor to global warming. Yet, the oil and gas industry remains a traditional strength for the United States. From the 19th century to the present day, America’s oil and gas sector has consistently thrived—this enduring vitality stands as a powerful symbol of U.S. economic might.

 

Historically, Republican presidents like George W. Bush have explicitly supported the expansion of U.S. oil and gas development and consumption. In contrast, Democratic presidents Obama and Biden, while passionate about climate protection and environmental sustainability, maintained relatively moderate restrictions on U.S. oil and gas development—driven by considerations such as industrial economics and job creation. As a result, during their tenures, U.S. oil and gas production surged significantly. Under Obama’s eight-year presidency, U.S. oil output grew by 82.2%, and natural gas production increased by 33.2%. Meanwhile, during Biden’s four-year term, growth rates slowed slightly to 22.0% for oil and 11.7% for natural gas.

 

President Trump makes no secret of his passion for U.S. oil and gas development—and more broadly, the energy sector. His support for oil and gas stems from multiple considerations: winning the votes of American oil and gas workers, as well as safeguarding the industry’s global competitive edge and boosting U.S. exports. At a deeper level, Trump believes that robust domestic oil and gas production, consumption, and exports are not only key drivers of America’s strength but also powerful symbols of its enduring power. After all, he’s determined to restore greatness to the U.S. oil and gas industry once again.

 

The Trump administration also aims to expand U.S. profits in the nuclear energy industry.

 

Unlike oil and gas, nuclear energy is a low-carbon source of power, and developing nuclear energy can help tackle climate change. Although Trump denies global warming and shows little interest in climate governance, he strongly supports the growth of nuclear energy in the United States. Clearly, Trump’s enthusiasm for nuclear energy has nothing to do with addressing climate change.

 

The United States is one of the world's leading nuclear powers and economic superpowers. For decades, U.S. nuclear power generation has consistently ranked first globally, while American companies like Westinghouse have pioneered advanced nuclear technologies such as pressurized water reactors and small modular reactors, placing them at the forefront of the industry worldwide. Moreover, the U.S. is a major global exporter of nuclear energy technology and equipment—countries around the globe, including China, have signed nuclear cooperation agreements with the U.S., adopting its cutting-edge nuclear technologies and importing its state-of-the-art nuclear infrastructure. Nuclear power plant construction demands high technical expertise and substantial investment, making both the building of nuclear facilities and the export of related technologies highly aligned with America’s energy and national interests. Additionally, promoting nuclear energy development helps safeguard the U.S.’s status as a global superpower. These factors are key reasons why multiple U.S. presidents—from Trump to others—across both Republican and Democratic administrations, have actively supported the growth of the nuclear energy sector.

 

Trump hopes to cut losses in industries such as wind and solar power.

 

In the oil, gas, and nuclear energy industries, Trump aims to expand profits. Meanwhile, in sectors like wind, solar, and electric vehicles, Trump seeks to limit losses.

 

First of all, Trump was determined to build high barriers and adopt a defensive stance in the wind and solar industries. The United States was one of the earliest countries in the world to develop wind and solar energy. Today, it remains a global leader in wind and solar power, accounting for 18.2% and 14.5% of the world’s total wind and solar electricity generation, respectively, in 2024. However, with the rapid rise of China’s wind and solar industry, America’s once-prominent achievements in this sector have gradually faded on the global stage. For instance, in 2016, China surpassed the U.S. in wind and solar power generation, pushing the U.S. down to second place worldwide. By 2024, U.S. wind and solar output had shrunk to just 42% of China’s level.

 

Figure 1: China-U.S. Solar and Wind Power Generation, 1983–2024

Source: Energy Institute.

 

Secondly, the Trump administration aimed to keep the "main battlefield" of competition in the automotive industry focused on gasoline-powered vehicles, showing no intention of getting entangled with China in the race to develop electric cars. The United States, after all, is where the global electric vehicle industry first took root, boasting more extensive experience in EV development than China does. Yet, in 2015, China’s sales of pure electric vehicles surpassed those of the U.S., and since then, its lead has only grown more pronounced. By 2024, China’s sales of pure electric vehicles were already 5.33 times higher than America’s. Today, China accounts for more than half of the world’s electric vehicle production, sales, and total vehicle stock. On a corporate level, while Tesla remains one of the world’s leading EV companies thanks to its cutting-edge technology and strong market presence, several Chinese EV manufacturers—such as BYD—have rapidly risen to join the global elite tier of electric vehicle producers. Taken together, it’s safe to say that China has not only overtaken the U.S. in the electric vehicle sector but has also firmly established itself as the world’s No. 1 player in this burgeoning industry.

 

Figure 2: Sales of Pure Electric Vehicles in China and the U.S., 2011–2024

Source: International Energy Agency.

 

The United States once was the world’s leading manufacturing powerhouse, and manufacturing—particularly industries like automotive—is a critical component of its economy. Neither the U.S. Democratic nor Republican parties can afford to fall behind China in manufacturing, nor can they tolerate China gaining relative advantages from bilateral collaborations between the two countries in areas such as automobiles, wind energy, and solar power. However, the two U.S. parties have adopted differing strategies to address this challenge.

 

President Obama and Vice President Biden, both from the Democratic Party, have primarily adopted an industry-protection approach when confronting the surge of Chinese wind, solar, and electric vehicle products, erecting green trade barriers against Chinese goods. For instance, in December 2012, the Obama administration issued final anti-dumping and countervailing duty rulings on utility-scale wind towers originating from China. Additionally, in 2012 and 2015, the administration launched two separate anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations targeting Chinese photovoltaic products. In September 2024, the Biden administration officially imposed a 100% tariff on electric vehicles manufactured in China, along with a 50% tariff on photovoltaic cells and modules.

 

On the other hand, the Democratic Party believes the United States has both the obligation and responsibility to develop wind, solar, and electric vehicle industries, and they are confident that technological innovation and other advancements will once again enable the country to secure a global leadership position. The Obama and Biden administrations have actively pushed forward the growth of clean energy sources like wind and solar power, as well as electric vehicles, through the implementation of key legislation such as the American Clean Energy and Security Act and the Inflation Reduction Act.

 

After Trump returned to the White House, he inherited the Democratic administration's restrictive measures—such as high tariffs imposed on China's wind, solar, and electric vehicle products. However, the Trump administration's policies also differed significantly. First, while the Democrats pursued profits, they also made a conscious effort to balance those gains with moral integrity and justice. In contrast, Trump openly prioritized profit above all else, particularly short-term gains, often disregarding ethical considerations altogether. His thinking was straightforward and marked by fewer concerns. Second, the Democratic government believed that, with sustained effort, U.S. wind, solar, and electric vehicles could once again reclaim their position at the global forefront. On the other hand, Trump dismissed renewable energy as expensive and unreliable, while dismissing electric vehicles as overpriced, inferior in quality, and ultimately ineffective ("doesn’t work"). He argued that if the U.S. redirected its financial and human resources toward developing traditional energy sources and gasoline-powered vehicles, it would unlock greater value—and that this approach would be far more rational.

 

 

 

How to respond to Trump's energy policies?

 

 

Given the reality that the energy policies of the U.S. Democratic and Republican parties share both similarities and differences, China needs to be prepared on two fronts. On one hand, in the long term, as both U.S. parties have firmly committed to making competition with China a key national strategy—commitment that will likely persist in the energy sector—China must fully recognize the complexity and protracted nature of competing with the U.S. in the energy industry. On the other hand, in the short term, while Trump continues to align with the overarching themes of the bipartisan U.S. energy policy, he may also deviate from conventional approaches and take some potentially disruptive actions. In response, China’s government, businesses, and people need to be mentally prepared for such scenarios.

 

In response to Trump’s energy policies, China can adopt the following measures: First, China must remain committed to developing clean energy sources such as wind, solar, and electric vehicles, thereby driving its own economic and social transformation while also contributing to global climate governance. Second, while engaging in a strategic competition with the Trump administration, China should make every effort to continue and even expand cooperation with the U.S. in areas like clean energy and climate action. It’s important to note that the U.S. is not entirely unified on energy and climate issues. Although the Republican Party currently holds the upper hand at the federal level, the Democratic Party—and states like California, often referred to as "blue states"—continue to maintain a relatively proactive stance on clean energy development and climate policy. China can seize opportunities to sustain and deepen collaboration with these entities. Third, China should further strengthen its energy and climate partnerships with the European Union. Despite recent setbacks in EU energy and climate policies, the bloc remains a global leader in clean energy innovation and climate action. China must spare no effort to enhance cooperation with the EU in advancing clean energy technologies and combating climate change, while also managing the competitive dynamics—particularly in areas like electric vehicles and other low-carbon products—with care. Finally, China needs to actively promote South-South cooperation in energy and climate matters. As developing countries experience economic growth and societal progress, their role in the global energy and climate arenas has become increasingly significant in recent years. At the same time, these nations have been steadily ramping up their investments in climate protection and sustainability. Given this trend, China must prioritize and continuously advance collaborative efforts with other developing countries, working together to make greater contributions toward global sustainable development.