In 2025, a major showdown among provinces over new energy trading prices—let the facts reveal whether solar power still has what it takes!

Yesterday, we analyzed and summarized the detailed rules of Document No. 136 from 20 provinces across the country, interpreting the policy landscape from the perspectives of mechanism-based electricity volume, pricing, and market cycle differentiation. Before 2025, photovoltaic investors typically focused heavily on "policies" and "subsidies." However, as power sector reform enters deeper waters, new energy power plants are now fully embracing the era of market-oriented trading. In the real-world scenario of new energy investment, policies have essentially become mere "safety barriers"—the real key to determining whether a power plant can turn a profit lies squarely in electricity prices. In the first half of 2025, China’s market-based electricity transactions reached 2,948.49 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 60.9% of the nation’s total electricity consumption. This milestone signifies that wind and solar projects are fully stepping into the deep end of market-driven competition. Under these evolving market dynamics, the question remains: Can photovoltaic projects still thrive? The answer ultimately hinges on returning to the fundamentals—specifically, evaluating the "actual electricity prices." Let’s take a closer look at how major regions across the country are settling and trading electricity prices for their respective new energy projects.

I. The Overall National Trading Landscape: Market-Oriented Trends Are Becoming Increasingly Prominent

According to statistics, from January to June 2025, the total electricity traded in the national market reached 2,948.49 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, accounting for 60.9% of the nation's total electricity consumption. This signifies that the market-oriented proportion of electricity trading is steadily rising, and the era when new-energy power plants relied on government policies for survival is being replaced by the reality of thriving in the marketplace. Looking at regional breakdowns:

The State Grid region completed electricity transactions totaling 2,274.14 billion kilowatt-hours, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.3%.

The Southern Power Grid region traded 523.78 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, significantly higher than the national average growth rate.

The Inner Mongolia Electricity Trading Center, meanwhile, saw a slight decrease of 0.4%.

This set of data sends a clear signal: the competitive focus in the new energy power sector is shifting toward the market trading phase—after all, only those who can secure higher settlement electricity prices in the market will ultimately prevail.

II. A Major Price Competition Among Provincial PV Trading Rates

1. Northwest Region: Rich in resources, yet facing pressure on electricity prices

Xinjiang: The average photovoltaic settlement price stands at 157.59 yuan/MWh—low enough to send investors into a state of alarm. This means that each kilowatt-hour of electricity fetches just 0.157 yuan, nearly the lowest level in the country. Despite abundant resources, the excessively low electricity prices are making it challenging for investors to achieve viable returns.

Gansu: The average photovoltaic settlement price is 165.48 yuan/MWh, slightly higher than Xinjiang, but still not particularly attractive.

Qinghai: The average photovoltaic settlement price is 227 yuan/MWh, significantly higher than in other provinces of Northwest China, leaving room for investment in some projects.

Ningxia: The average price of photovoltaic power is 165.77 yuan/MWh, which is relatively low compared to electricity prices elsewhere.

Overall, although the Northwest leads the nation in installed capacity, rising oversupply of new energy sources has driven electricity prices steadily downward. Additionally, transmitting power out of the region remains challenging, leading to severe power curtailments. As a result, investment risks in the area can be described as extremely high.

2. Northeastern Region: Electricity prices are relatively high, but show significant fluctuations.

Heilongjiang: The average price for photovoltaic power is 331 yuan/MWh, while green energy transactions have even reached 419.58 yuan/MWh.

Jilin: The average price for photovoltaic power is 353.53 yuan/MWh, while the market-based trading rate stands at 324.38 yuan/MWh, placing it among the higher levels nationwide.

Liaoning: The average price of photovoltaic power is 384.31 yuan/MWh, while the average price of green electricity is even higher, reaching 409.43 yuan/MWh.

Electricity prices in Northeast China remain relatively high overall, but due to weak demand and limited grid capacity for renewable energy integration, price volatility may occur in the future. Overall, however, PV investments in Northeast China still hold attractive potential, particularly in Jilin and Liaoning provinces.

3. North China Region: Uneven temperatures with significant regional differences

Shanxi: The average price of photovoltaic power has dropped to an astonishingly low 105.87 yuan/MWh—almost unbelievably so. This means photovoltaic projects are left with virtually no room for profit.

Jibei: The average photovoltaic settlement price is 398.27 yuan/MWh, while green electricity reaches as high as 419 yuan/MWh—making it a highly attractive region.

Jinan South: The average price of photovoltaic power is 341.28 yuan/MWh, placing it at a moderately high level.

Shandong: The average settlement price for photovoltaic power is 327.04 yuan/MWh, but due to the rapid growth in installed capacity, spot prices plummeted during midday hours—investors are advised to proceed with caution.

The North China region is experiencing "polarization": northern Hebei has become a hot spot for photovoltaic investments, while Shanxi remains virtually a "no-go zone."

4. Southern Region: Electricity prices remain strong, with robust demand for power.

Guangdong: As the province with the highest electricity consumption in China, Guangdong has consistently maintained generation-side electricity prices around 0.45 yuan per kilowatt-hour—far higher than most other provinces. Although large-scale centralized photovoltaic projects have been halted, the rooftop distributed market still holds tremendous potential.

Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guizhou: Relying on hydropower consumption, electricity prices remain stable at 0.3–0.35 yuan/kWh, leaving ample room for further development.

Summary: The southern region boasts robust electricity prices and strong demand for power, making it a key hotspot for future photovoltaic investments.

III. Assessing Whether Photovoltaics Still Make Sense: A Multi-Dimensional Comprehensive Analysis

Relying solely on electricity prices isn't enough to determine whether a project will be profitable—it also requires considering the following aspects:

Policy Environment: The mechanism electricity volume and pricing mechanisms stipulated by Document No. 136 in various regions determine the fundamental framework for new energy projects.

Electricity price trend: Currently, mechanism-based electricity prices have generally been reduced by 0.05 to 0.1 yuan per kWh, and in the future, the market-oriented pricing system will be fully implemented.

Absorption Capacity: The southeastern coastal regions have strong electricity demand, resulting in low pressure to absorb additional power; in contrast, the northwest region faces excess resources, driving prices down.

Grid Upgrade: Insufficient investment in the distribution network has constrained the ability to integrate new energy sources. In the future, "integrated source-grid-load-storage" projects will become the key to resolving this issue.
 

4. Which provinces are suitable for continuing to develop photovoltaics?

Here's how Qiang views which provinces can continue developing photovoltaic energy, taking into account electricity price levels, consumption capacity, and distribution network upgrades (this is purely a personal opinion and should not be considered investment advice):

High-yield regions (worth investing in): Northern Hebei, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, and Guangdong.

Moderate-yield areas (requires careful assessment): Shandong, Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Yunnan.

High-risk areas (not yet suitable for re-entry): Xinjiang, Gansu, Shanxi.

To conclude: The core logic of PV investment is undergoing a fundamental reshaping.

2025 marks the deep-water phase of China's new-energy electricity reform. As policy subsidies gradually phase out and market-based electricity prices determine success or failure, this represents the photovoltaic industry's biggest turning point. In a single sentence:

In regions with high electricity prices and strong grid absorption capacity—such as northern Hebei, Liaoning, and Guangdong—photovoltaic energy can still thrive—and even perform exceptionally well.

In regions with low electricity prices and oversupply—such as Xinjiang and Shanxi—further investing in photovoltaics would simply be "asking for trouble."

In the future, as electricity demand surges from AI, cloud computing, and data centers, society's overall power consumption will continue to grow—yet solar PV will remain the cornerstone of the energy transition. However, investors must face reality: it’s not that solar PV can’t succeed—it’s simply a matter of where and how it’s implemented!