Frequent high temperatures and record-high electricity demand: Why are there no power cuts this year?

Abstract:

During the peak summer period, electricity demand repeatedly hit record highs, yet the national power supply remained stable and orderly, successfully withstanding the first round of high-temperature, high-load tests this summer.

 

Since the beginning of summer, large-scale and intense heatwaves have continuously affected China.

 

According to data from the China Meteorological Administration, June saw the highest temperatures for the same period in history. The national average temperature in June was 21.1℃, 0.9℃ higher than the average for the same period, tying 2022 as the highest for the same period since 1961.

 

In July, the area covered by temperatures of 40℃ and above reached 407,000 square kilometers. 152 national-level meteorological stations observed temperatures of 40℃ and above, with 102 stations exceeding their July maximums and 32 stations exceeding their historical maximums.

 

In August, China's high-temperature weather remains at its peak, widespread and intense, especially in parts of Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Chongqing, where the highest temperatures are approaching or exceeding 40℃. Zhengzhou experienced its 47th high-temperature day this year, breaking the record for the most high-temperature days in a year; many places in Chongqing exceeded 40℃, with Wuxi breaking its historical highest temperature record.

 

With the heatwave, as many places set new temperature highs, electricity demand also climbed steadily, with total social electricity consumption increasing by 5.4% year-on-year in June. Since July, the national temperature has been consistently high, with average temperatures in most areas 1-2℃ higher than the same period last year; high temperatures coupled with economic growth have led to a rapid increase in electricity demand, exceeding 200 million kilowatts compared to late June.

 

On July 4th, 7th, 16th, and 17th, the national maximum electricity load hit record highs four times, exceeding 1.5 billion kilowatts, reaching a peak of 1.508 billion kilowatts, an increase of 57 million kilowatts compared to last year's maximum load. The China Electricity Council predicts that the national highest electricity load will reach around 1.55 billion kilowatts in 2025, setting a new record.

 

Currently, The power grid system must not only face traditional challenges such as rising loads and abnormal weather, but also solve modern problems such as the large-scale, high-proportion development and absorption of new energy sources and power system regulation. How to deal with these challenges, and will power rationing happen again?

 

Image: National power grid's peak electricity load increases year by year
 

Source: GF Securities

 

 

01

Electricity load repeatedly hits record highs

 

On July 4th, the national maximum electricity load reached 1.465 billion kilowatts, an increase of about 200 million kilowatts compared to the end of June, and nearly 150 million kilowatts compared to the same period last year, setting a new record. Among them, the load of the East China Power Grid reached 422 million kilowatts, with air conditioning accounting for about 37%.

 

On July 16th, the national maximum electricity load once again broke the historical record after July 4th and 7th, exceeding 1.5 billion kilowatts for the first time, reaching a maximum of 1.506 billion kilowatts. This record was broken just one day later, with the national electricity load reaching 1.508 billion kilowatts on July 17th, an increase of 57 million kilowatts compared to last year's maximum load, equivalent to the electricity load of Fujian Province.

 

During the peak high-temperature period starting on July 15th, several provinces broke their electricity load records. At around 12:40 pm on July 16th, Zhejiang's total social electricity load reached 126 million kilowatts, setting a new record. As of July 16th, Zhejiang's electricity load has exceeded 100 million kilowatts for 28 days this summer, and the Zhejiang power grid is experiencing a phase of consistently exceeding 100 million kilowatts.

 

State Grid Shaanxi Power also issued a message stating that at 4:49 pm on July 16th, the Shaanxi power grid load reached 44.91 million kilowatts, setting a new high for three consecutive days. This load is 10% higher than the maximum load in 2024 and 2.7% higher than the maximum load the previous day. On the same day, the peak electricity load of the Sichuan power grid reached 72.24 million kilowatts, exceeding 70 million kilowatts for the first time, setting a new record.

 

On July 31st, at the third-quarter press conference of the National Energy Administration in 2025, Liu Mingyang, deputy director of the Electricity Department, stated: "So far, the load of 19 provincial power grids, including Jiangsu, Shandong, and Guangdong, has broken historical highs 46 times."

 

Image: National maximum electricity load hits record highs four times

Source: People's Daily

 

Since August, high temperatures in Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Chongqing have once again driven a continuous increase in electricity demand. On August 4th, the Chongqing power grid's electricity load reached 29.74 million kilowatts, setting a new record for the third time this year. This load is 4% higher than the new high of 28.6 million kilowatts set during the July heatwave. State Grid Sichuan predicts that the maximum electricity load of the Sichuan power grid in August is expected to exceed 74 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%.

 

On August 4th, affected by high temperatures and other factors, the State Grid's electricity load hit a new high for the third time, reaching 1.222 billion kilowatts. Previously, the Southern Power Grid's peak electricity load reached 252 million kilowatts on July 9th, setting a new historical high this year.

 

Why is the electricity load repeatedly hitting new highs? A relevant person in charge of the China Electricity Council introduced, In addition to temperature factors, driven by the national "two-heavy" and "two-new" policies, sales of related goods, manufacturing investment have grown rapidly, domestic demand has steadily expanded, and new productive forces have been cultivated and grown, which has also provided strong support for electricity consumption.

 

 

02

Thermal power and green power work together, energy storage and ultra-high voltage power transmission work together

 

The combination of hot weather and a hot economy, this "double heatwave," has pushed this summer's electricity load to new peaks. According to the China Electricity Council's prediction, the national highest electricity load will reach around 1.55 billion kilowatts in 2025, setting a new record. This is undoubtedly a tough battle for the power system.

 

In the face of historical peak values, China's power system has performed remarkably well. Under a load exceeding 1.5 billion kilowatts, there were no large-scale power outages nationwide, and the power supply remained stable and orderly (only Sichuan adopted short-term demand response measures during the peak period on the evening of the 17th), successfully withstanding the high-temperature, high-load test this summer.

 

Image: China's power supply and demand are generally balanced

Source: CCTV

 

From the perspective of source guarantee, various power sources such as "water, fire, wind, and light" work together, with main power sources operating steadily at full capacity, and new energy sources operating at full capacity. From the current structure of China's power supply, thermal power is an important "ballast stone" for peak summer electricity demand. Data from the National Energy Administration shows that since the peak summer period, the national coal inventory of power plants under unified dispatch has remained above 200 million tons, with usable days exceeding 30 days, playing an important role as a "stabilizer".

 

In addition to traditional thermal power generation, with the continuous expansion of new energy power generation capacity in recent years, new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics have further supported the stable supply of electricity. In the first half of this year, the newly installed capacity of renewable energy nationwide reached 268 million kilowatts, accounting for about 91.5% of the newly installed capacity. The power generation of renewable energy reached 1799.3 billion kilowatt-hours, nearly 40% of the total national power generation, exceeding the sum of the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and urban and rural residents in the same period.

 

Under the challenge of high temperature and high load, many places have created new historical highs in new energy output. On July 5, the new energy output of the Shandong power grid reached 66.615 million kilowatts, accounting for 54.9% of the total grid load and 63.1% of the total grid power generation. On July 3, when Jiangsu Province's electricity load hit a record high for the year, wind and solar new energy generation reached 60.47 million kilowatts, also setting a record.

 

At the same time, pumped hydro storage and new energy storage have also made positive contributions to the power supply this summer, giving full play to their regulating role. They have become "super chargers," capable of discharging to cope with peak demand during peak hours and charging to help absorb new energy during off-peak hours.

 

According to preliminary statistics from power grid companies, the equivalent utilization hours of new energy storage nationwide in the first half of the year were about 570 hours, an increase of more than 100 hours year-on-year. Among them, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Yunnan successively carried out concentrated dispatch of provincial new energy storage power stations during peak electricity consumption periods, with maximum discharge powers of 7.14 million kilowatts, 8.04 million kilowatts, and 4.74 million kilowatts respectively, and the simultaneous dispatch rate reached more than 95%, playing an important role in peak power supply.

 

Picture: Jiangsu takes multiple measures to "shave peaks and fill valleys"

Source: Jiangsu Television

 

Taking Jiangsu Province as an example, on the evening of July 6, the State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Dispatching Center issued an instruction, and 93 new energy storage power stations simultaneously discharged to the grid, with a maximum discharge power of 7.14 million kilowatts, which can meet the electricity demand of 48 million households for one hour. This scale set a new record for concentrated dispatch, a year-on-year increase of 56.9%.

 

In addition, a highly efficient energy allocation system provides strong support for coping with peak summer demand. From West-to-East power transmission to North-to-South power transmission, from ultra-high voltage projects to smart grids, China has built the world's largest and most advanced power system.

 

This year, ultra-high voltage DC transmission channels such as Gansu to Shandong and Xinjiang to Chongqing have been completed and put into operation, and this system is still growing. While improving hardware facilities, power supply departments make full use of China's large power grid resource allocation advantages, and through advanced intelligent dispatching systems, they grasp the dynamics of power supply and demand in real time and accurately allocate power resources.

 

Entering the latter half of June, wind and solar energy from Xinjiang continued to be bundled and sent to Southwest, Central China, and East China regions. Since the Hami-Chongqing ±800 kV ultra-high voltage DC transmission project was put into operation and delivered electricity on June 10, the electricity transmission volume has exceeded 1 billion kilowatt-hours. Relying on this project, Xinjiang's green electricity only needs 0.007 seconds to travel 2260 kilometers to Chongqing. Chongqing Power Company has increased the amount of external electricity purchased this year, and has currently secured a peak maximum external electricity purchase of 9.71 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 78%.

 

Picture: Hami-Chongqing ±800 kV ultra-high voltage DC transmission project

Source: State Grid Corporation of China

 

 

03

Interconnection of the two grids, entering a new era of cross-regional coordinated mutual assistance

 

At this critical moment of power supply guarantee during the peak summer demand, the construction of the national unified electricity market has also taken a big step forward. The State Grid and the Southern Power Grid, the two major power grids, have historically joined hands, and in the future, they can conduct regular transactions and freely buy and sell electricity in different operating areas.

 

On July 11, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration approved the plan for the cross-operating area regular trading mechanism of the State Grid and the Southern Power Grid. This mechanism has paved the way for efficient matching of electricity supply and demand and optimized cross-regional resource allocation, and is of great significance for breaking market segmentation and regional blockade and achieving regular transactions across power grid operating areas.

 

Currently, the new energy penetration rate in the State Grid area has approached 50%, and many provinces have an oversupply of photovoltaic power generation, while the new energy penetration rate in the Southern Power Grid area is not very high. Breaking down the original invisible barriers between the State Grid area and the Southern Power Grid area, and achieving cross-regional power mutual assistance, will effectively improve the utilization rate of new energy and resolve the problem of abandoned and stranded electricity.

 

By the end of July, the maximum cross-regional power transmission nationwide reached 148 million kilowatts, setting a new historical high. Power grid companies have begun cross-operating area mutual assistance, and during peak hours, they have achieved 3.2 million kilowatts of support power through mutual assistance between the Fujian-Guangdong DC and the Jiangcheng DC reverse transmission. At 5 pm on July 4, the Fujian-Guangdong interconnection project sent electricity to Fujian for the first time with a full-channel capacity of 2 million kilowatts, achieving full-power two-way power transmission between Guangdong and Fujian.

 

Recently, the Beijing Power Trading Center and the Guangzhou Power Trading Center jointly organized the largest cross-operating area market-oriented power transaction in the country. From July 1 to September 15, more than 2 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity from Guangdong, Guangxi, and Yunnan will be sent to Shanghai, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Fujian through the Fujian-Guangdong interconnection project and related connecting channels. Among them, Guangdong is expected to send 892 million kilowatt-hours to Fujian, and Yunnan and Guangxi will each send 626 million kilowatt-hours to East China.

 

Picture: The construction of the national unified electricity market accelerates

Source: CCTV News

 

 

04

In conclusion

 

According to the National Climate Center's forecast, in August, the temperature in most parts of the country is expected to be close to or slightly higher than the same period of previous years, especially in East China, Central China, and southern Xinjiang, where the number of high-temperature (≥35℃) days will be higher than the same period of previous years, and the risk of episodic high-temperature heat waves will be higher.

 

In this regard, Liu Mingyang, deputy director of the Electricity Department of the National Energy Administration, said that if extreme weather and large-scale continuous high temperatures occur, the pressure on power supply security will further increase. If multiple regions experience heat waves simultaneously, the national electricity load is expected to exceed 1.55 billion kilowatts. At present, the overall power supply nationwide is guaranteed, and the power supply in some provinces in East China, Central China, and the South is tight during peak hours, but it can be effectively controlled by taking relevant measures.

 

GF Securities also pointed out in its research report that if the power load reserve rate is used as an indicator for calculation, considering the maximum load growth rate of 6.9%, and adding the thermal power and nuclear power units that have been continuously put into operation in recent years, Considering the increase in output of wind and solar power with storage during peak load hours, the load reserve rate is expected to decline steadily, and power shortages are unlikely to occur.