State Grid Energy Research Institute: Construction of Gobi and desert bases accelerates, with an estimated addition of over 500GW of wind and solar power capacity by 2025

On July 4, the State Grid Energy Research Institute and the National Climate Center jointly released the "China Power Supply and Demand Report (2025)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") in Beijing, which predicts the power supply and demand relationship in 2025.

From the supply side, the construction of Gobi and desert bases will accelerate in 2025, It is expected that 140 million kW of new wind power will be put into operation , a 77.1% increase year-on-year, setting a new historical high; 380 million kW of new solar power generation will be put into operation , a 35.5% increase year-on-year, The newly installed capacity of new energy sources exceeds 500 million kW for the first time.

In terms of overall power supply, the newly installed power generation capacity in 2025 will increase by 53.2% year-on-year, setting a new historical high.

The Report predicts that power generation capacity will continue to grow rapidly, The proportion of new energy sources will exceed 45%, and the proportion of solar energy will exceed 30%.

By the end of 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China is expected to reach about 3.99 billion kW, a 19.2% increase year-on-year. Specifically, The installed capacity of solar power generation will reach 1.26 billion kW; the installed capacity of wind power generation will reach 660 million kW; The installed capacity of nuclear power generation will reach 67 million kW; the installed capacity of hydropower generation will reach 450 million kW; the installed capacity of thermal power generation will reach 1.55 billion kW, and the proportion of photovoltaic power generation will approach that of thermal power generation.

From the national energy administration's release of January-May National power industry statistical data It is understood that the installed capacity of solar power generation is 1.08 billion kW, a year-on-year increase of 56.9%; the installed capacity of wind power generation is 570 million kW, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%. From January to May 2025, the newly added photovoltaic capacity reached 197.85 GW, with a single-month increase of 92.92 GW in May. Compared with the same period in 2024, it has soared by 388%.

From the demand side, under low, medium, and high scenarios, the growth rate of electricity consumption in China is in the range of 4%-6.5%, and the electricity consumption in 2025 will reach 10.25 trillion to 10.49 billion kWh, exceeding the 10 trillion kWh mark.

Among them, the North China, East China, and Southern Power Grid regions are the main driving forces for electricity consumption growth. In 2025, the electricity consumption growth rate in the East China Power Grid region (4.9%) is expected to decline significantly compared to the previous year, while the electricity consumption growth rate in the Southern Power Grid region (5.7%) leads the country. The combined contribution rate of the North China (including Inner Mongolia West), East China, and Southern Power Grid regions exceeds 65%.

Some reports are shown below: