How to solve the uncertainties in the development and operation of new energy under Document No. 136?

Entering 2025, China's new energy investment is entering a turbulent period of policy adjustments. The release of Document No. 136 has promoted the full entry of new energy into the market, and the marketization of electricity has significantly increased the difficulty of asset management and decision-making for investors.

 

Among them, new entities such as distributed photovoltaics and energy storage are particularly affected. Due to the characteristics of "small and scattered" and "strong fluctuations" of these power plant assets, the difficulty of operation and risk control has been further amplified, causing many investors to be "deterred" and even suspending new energy investment decisions.

 

In the face of the new era of new energy marketization, as an important participant in the new energy industry, how to identify early investment risks, accurately conduct project evaluation, and how to suppress price fluctuations and improve investment returns after production has become a typical dilemma plaguing the entire industry.

 

Obviously, this requires new energy investors to have a stronger electricity market mindset, which in turn guides the site selection, development, and asset operation logic of new energy power plants.

 

Zhu Yongfeng, director and deputy general manager of Xiehe Operation and Maintenance, pointed out at the "2025 China Green Leasing Development Forum" that the development scenarios of new energy in China are constantly enriching, and marketization will force the iterative innovation of operation models in different scenarios. Professional and reliable pre-investment and post-investment asset management is always a strong backing in the face of numerous market challenges. Only by "managing well" existing assets and "investing accurately" in incremental projects can we continuously promote the steady and rapid growth of new energy asset value.

 

Zhu Yongfeng, director and deputy general manager of Xiehe Operation and Maintenance

 

Little things add up: 3GW household power plants and CNY 25.36 million in electricity bill "losses"

 

Under the influence of Document No. 136, existing distributed photovoltaic assets are under significant pressure, especially household projects using the "full grid-connected" model. By the end of March 2025, China's installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power generation reached 411GW, of which household installations exceeded 150GW, accounting for 36%.

 

The biggest problem with household asset management is that the widely existing but imperceptible power generation losses are often overlooked. This is due to the typical characteristics of household projects being "large in number, small in size, and decentralized." From the perspective of overall capacity, it is "large in quantity and numerous households," but from the perspective of individual households, it is "small and scattered." This leads to risks such as "leakage," such as faults, inefficiency, disputes, power restrictions, and natural disasters. A single problem may seem insignificant, but "very large base × very small unit" plus high-frequency occurrence will ultimately lead to "a slight difference in power generation and revenue, resulting in a huge difference in the end."

 

30kW power plant (single household) VS 3GW power plant (100,000 households)

 

Based on Xiehe Operation and Maintenance's research, the average processing time for a single fault in a 30kW household power plant is 56 hours, and the single loss of electricity is about 245kWh; the average number of faults per year is 0.8 times, and the annual loss of electricity is about 196kWh. On this basis, the annual loss of electricity for a 3GW household power plant can reach 19.6 million kWh, and the loss of electricity charges is as high as CNY 7.84 million.

 

At the same time, adding factors such as inefficiency, disputes, and natural disasters, the annual loss of electricity for a 3GW household power plant can reach 42.4 million kWh, and the loss of electricity charges is as high as CNY 16.96 million. If the single problem processing time is extended or the annual frequency is increased, for example, if the single fault processing time is extended to 70 hours and the annual fault frequency is increased to 1 time, the resulting electricity loss will reach 63.39 million kWh, and the electricity charge loss will reach CNY 25.36 million.

Therefore, The operation and maintenance logic for household use with a large base is to solve the widely existing but imperceptible power generation losses. The core is to shorten the time it takes for a problem "to appear and be solved" and reduce the frequency of problems: timely discovery of problems, shortening the execution time, and improving the one-time resolution rate.

 

In this process, an "online and offline" integrated operation system is a necessary choice, and a closed-loop, transparent, automatic, and intelligent operation platform and sufficiently dense professional offline maintenance resources are key.

 

Online, driven by automation and intelligence, to achieve equipment monitoring, fault diagnosis, and work order dispatch Full-process, transparent, closed-loop management ; automatically generate operational analysis reports, evaluating asset quality, health, and maintenance level from different indicators, and providing reference value for power plant operation in different spaces. Offline, through regional sharing, creating a "half-hour" operation and maintenance circle, Achieving high-density coverage of maintenance and other service resources , effectively reducing power generation losses and contributing to the maximization of power generation efficiency and energy value.

 

Xiehe Operation and Maintenance helps customers recover electricity

 

Xiehe Operation and Maintenance, through refined operation and management, significantly shortens problem processing time and reduces the frequency of problems, Successfully helped a 3GW household customer recover 27.64 million kWh of electricity and CNY 11.06 million in electricity charges based on the original basis, Helping new energy assets maintain and increase their value.

 

Real-time changes in electricity prices: How to quantify the investment returns of energy storage?

 

The new energy revenue model has shifted from certainty to uncertainty, and investment decisions face significant market risks. For the financing leasing industry, "accurate investment" is the key to avoiding structural risks. Energy storage, as a key option for solving the problem of new energy consumption, has ushered in development opportunities, but its revenue model has also changed with the marketization process.

 

At present, the rental price of energy storage capacity is low, the proportion is low, and the lease contract time is short; the auxiliary service market is not yet sound. Actively participating in the electricity energy market is a necessary option for maximizing the revenue of energy storage projects, but in the electricity energy market, electricity prices have strong uncertainty.
 

 

Typical "duck curve"

 

Disordered electricity price pattern

 

Taking Shandong as an example, the electricity price pattern in the spot market is not always a typical "duck curve" (charging and discharging strategies are relatively simple). This type of curve only accounted for 72 days in 2023, and more electricity price patterns are disordered and have no fixed rules. In particular, Shandong issued the "Notice on Issuing the Shandong Electricity Market Rules (Trial)" in April 2024, requiring that after July 1, the reporting method for all independent energy storage will change from "reporting quantity without reporting price" to "reporting quantity and reporting price," which will bring about a subversive change in the operation logic of energy storage power plants in Shandong.

 

In this context, Only by accurately predicting electricity price trends and reasonably formulating charging and discharging strategies can revenue be quantified and visible. This requires building a nationwide energy storage trading strategy model, verifying the profit potential of each province based on abundant historical data, predicting electricity prices in the next 5-10 years, establishing a quantitative decision-making paradigm based on probabilistic thinking, helping customers effectively evaluate the returns of energy storage power plants, achieving precise investment, and ensuring asset management wins at the starting point.

 

Xiehe Operation and Maintenance: Precisely Grasping the Full-Lifecycle Value of All Types of New Energy Assets

 

Xiehe Operation and Maintenance starts from the perspective of the entire life cycle of assets, with “Asset Operation and Maintenance × Electricity Trading × Digitalization” full-chain service capabilities, connecting key factors affecting asset returns, such as asset operating efficiency, asset and market synergy, and AI cost reduction and efficiency improvement, capabilities cover all types of new energy application scenarios, including wind power, photovoltaics, energy storage, and integrated energy , helping industry investors maximize asset returns.

 

For existing assets, focusing on improving asset profitability, achieving asset preservation and appreciation through refined operation and management; for incremental projects, building an asset value assessment system covering time and space dimensions and trading scenarios, and combining large-scale power plant management experience and data to quantify project investment returns and solve the complexities of investment decision-making.

 

The new energy sector has a long and steep slope, and in the midst of the wave of change, only by actively embracing change and building a solid competitive barrier can we win the long-term value dividend. Xiehe Operation and Maintenance always adheres to the mission of Using professionalism to ensure the sustained profitability of clean energy assets ”, allowing new energy assets to appreciate in value through high-quality operation and contributing to the sustainable development of the new energy industry.