Under the photovoltaic "avalanche", 140,000 "snowflakes" have disappeared...

Author | Decarbonization Source | Carbon Rush Technology

In an avalanche, no snowflake is innocent.

The photovoltaic industry has already experienced an avalanche. Photovoltaic workers, like snowflakes, drifted and scattered, covering the sky and the earth, creating an industry. Their disappearance is also silent and unnoticed.

How many photovoltaic workers have disappeared?

How many people are currently employed in the photovoltaic industry?

2023 was the most frenzied and booming year for photovoltaics, with many people pouring into the industry from various sectors.

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), in its "Renewable Energy and Jobs: 2024 Annual Review," reported that in 2023, the Chinese photovoltaic industry created approximately 7.1 million jobs, accounting for 44% of global photovoltaic employment.

IRENA's statistic of 7.1 million may be conservative. In March 2024, data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association showed that household photovoltaics in China directly provided approximately 2 million jobs and indirectly created approximately 5 million job opportunities. The association's data of 7 million does not include manufacturing employees.

Many people have already left the industry in the past year. More will leave in the future.

According to the CSSC Industry Classification (2021), a total of 86 A-share listed companies are involved in photovoltaic power generation equipment and photovoltaic power generation. By the end of 2024, the total number of employees of these 86 companies was 475,000, a decrease of 142,000 from the peak in 2023, representing a reduction of approximately 23%.

This only includes the 86 listed companies whose main business is photovoltaics, excluding companies listed in Hong Kong such as Xinyi Solar, and does not include those "five large and six small" companies, local energy groups, and fossil energy companies with photovoltaic businesses, and certainly does not cover all small and micro-enterprises.

Tianyancha's latest data shows that there are 11,536 companies engaged in the manufacturing of photovoltaic equipment and components, 116,904 companies engaged in solar power generation, and a staggering 1.37 million companies whose business scope includes photovoltaics.

Even according to IRENA's statistics of 7.1 million employees, and even with a 23% reduction in personnel for the 86 A-share listed photovoltaic companies, in 2024, at least 1.6 million people in China's photovoltaic industry lost their jobs.

The number of workers who left the photovoltaic industry in the past year may be far more than 1.6 million. This is because these 86 companies are among the 1.37 million photovoltaic companies, and they are the 86 strongest economically.

For easy comparison, we have compiled several sets of data.

2024 layoff rate exceeding 40% in listed photovoltaic companies; from East Money Choice

Layoff rates often speak volumes. The top two companies are ST Lingda and Huadong Heavy Machinery, both of which are cross-border companies. Cross-border companies are undoubtedly the hardest hit for photovoltaic workers.

Many familiar companies are not listed companies, such as Yidao, Daheng, Zhongqing, Weilai, Qiya, etc. Their layoffs should also be numerous. As for more small and medium-sized enterprises, countless have ceased production, suspended operations, or even gone bankrupt and liquidated in this photovoltaic cold winter.

2024 A-share employee number change TOP31; from East Money Choice

The table above is even more alarming—this is the ranking of all A-share listed companies.

By the end of 2024, among the more than 5,400 A-share listed companies, there were 10 photovoltaic manufacturing companies among the top 31 companies with the largest reduction in employees, making them the top contenders. Among the companies highlighted in red above, only Tianneng shares is an energy storage company.

China Construction, for example, reduced its workforce from 380,000 to 360,000, a change of only 5.7%, and SAIC and Ping An are similar. However, our photovoltaic companies are not, directly cutting their workforce by half or more.

However, the misfortune of photovoltaic companies and photovoltaic workers is unique to photovoltaics and is unrelated to the entire new energy sector.

Despite facing fierce market competition and severe industry involution, the performance of the lithium battery industry has been stunning.

In 2024, among the more than 5,400 A-share listed companies, BYD alone added 265,000 employees, and CATL added nearly 16,000. Among the top 20 companies with the largest increase in employees, there are 4 lithium battery companies.

Last year, the top 10 photovoltaic companies with the largest reduction in employees reduced their workforce by a total of 120,000, accounting for 86% of the total reduction of 140,000 employees among the 86 listed photovoltaic companies. However, even if all 140,000 employees laid off by listed photovoltaic companies went to work for BYD, the company would still have a shortfall of nearly half its workforce!

Prior to this, Carbon Rush had almost never touched on such topics. This is because Carbon Rush had previously worked in the management of several leading private enterprises and understands the difficulties faced by entrepreneurs. They would never cut salaries, owe salaries, or lay off employees unless they faced extreme hardship. While employees have their own hardships in demanding wages, companies also have their own difficulties in owing wages and laying off employees.

The inability to pay wages and layoffs are not just about the face of entrepreneurs, the credit and reputation of the company among stakeholders, but also about the long-term stability and sustainable development of the company itself. From the perspective of employer branding alone, who would want to work for a company that cannot even pay wages and is laying off employees on a large scale?

But after compiling this data today, Carbon Rush feels a mix of emotions, a sense of sadness and helplessness.

A grain of sand in the age is a mountain for every ordinary person. The photovoltaic industry has already experienced an avalanche, whether it's 140,000 manufacturing workers or 1.6 million employees, countless photovoltaic workers have disappeared in this cold winter, like snowflakes, silently and unnoticed. How did our industry come to this?!!

On the morning of May 24, 2023, people attending the SNEC exhibition lined up outside the Shanghai New International Expo Center in Pudong. Many of them may have already left the industry.

How many more people will leave the industry?

When will the photovoltaic industry recover?

Recently, few people have asked Carbon Rush this question anymore; people seem to have become numb. The situation in the capital market is similar; although photovoltaics has been lying flat on the floor for a long time, it has been ignored. The only new thing in the industry is that photovoltaic products are still falling in price.

Another SNEC has passed. Many companies are persevering, but some have withdrawn, leaving some booths vacant. Looking back to 2023, temporary booths were set up on the lawn of the New International Expo Center, with companies competing for them at high prices.

SNEC is a good opportunity to gauge the temperature and trends of the industry. Besides meeting clients, it's also a place to collect debts and chase payments; in short, it's easy to find the people you need to find. At the annual photovoltaic industry event, meeting old acquaintances, only to find out they are debt collectors. I understand now.

I was chatting with a friend, who mentioned that some large and small players would be in Shanghai this year to negotiate prices with component manufacturers. The winning bid price during the bidding process is just a reference; each project still requires price negotiation. Price negotiation mainly refers to the spot market price, and according to the contract, the negotiated price will definitely not be higher than the winning bid price, nor will it be publicly announced. It's good enough to have an order; don't ask about the price, don't ask about anything else.

So, in this market environment, how many more photovoltaic workers will leave the industry? This can be easily predicted.

The number of employees in the photovoltaic industry is mainly related to the size of the industry, and also to whether they are making money and how much money they are making, but the relationship is not very strong. In other words, the revenue of the photovoltaic industry is positively correlated with the number of photovoltaic employees.

In 2023, the total operating revenue of 86 listed photovoltaic companies was 1.3747 trillion yuan, double the 670 billion yuan in 2021. The total number of employees of these 86 companies also increased from 374,000 in 2021 to 617,000, a 65% increase.

Similarly, the total revenue of 86 photovoltaic companies in 2024 was around 1 trillion yuan, a 20% decrease from 2023, and the total number of employees also decreased by 23%.

In other words, when the photovoltaic industry made a lot of money, the growth rate of the number of employees was lower than the growth rate of revenue. But when the industry suffered heavy losses, the decline in the number of employees was greater than the decline in revenue.

If the overall market environment of the industry does not continue to deteriorate, we can refer to the changes in the revenue of 86 companies in the first quarter of this year to predict the changes in their number of employees.

In the first quarter of 2025, the operating revenue of 86 companies decreased by about 14.38% year-on-year. Theoretically, the total number of employees of these 86 companies in 2025 will decrease by at least this much from 2024, which is about 70,000 people.

As long as photovoltaic companies can maintain their revenue scale in 2025 and strive to lose less money than in 2024, the number of photovoltaic workers leaving the industry will not be as high as last year.

Postscript

 

Some of us once refused to acknowledge the phenomenon of "lying flat," prohibiting the promotion of various "lying flat" behaviors, and even avoiding discussions of "overcapacity." The reality is that the phenomenon of "lying flat" is quite common, and overcapacity is quite serious.

Only by facing the problem can we solve it. Since last year, after the first shot was fired in the photovoltaic industry, anti-involution has become the theme of many industries, and various policies have been introduced. Recently, anti-involution has been hotly debated again. The key is how to effectively combat involution.

We see that Midea Group stipulates that employees are not allowed to stay in the company for overtime after 6:20 pm, and Haier requires mandatory double weekends. Lenovo opposes 996, even Meituan has launched an algorithm, launching a rider anti-fatigue mechanism, subsidizing physical businesses, gradually canceling overtime deductions, and Ctrip is exploring a more flexible four-day work week.

That's great! These companies are qualified to fight against involution. But this is not applicable to everyone. For the photovoltaic industry, we can borrow a phrase from "Moonlight on the Lotus Pond": "The bustling is theirs, I have nothing."

Objectively speaking, which company inherently wants to engage in involution or wants to sell at a loss? Which worker wants to work 996 and doesn't want a work-life balance?
 

These companies that are doing well or even very well have little reference value for the photovoltaic industry. Photovoltaic workers now are so envious and eager for 996! Now they are afraid of having no work, afraid of only working three days a week, afraid of not getting paid on payday. Of course, the most feared thing is those unscrupulous companies that even erase employees' attendance records!

In the current photovoltaic industry, if news comes out that a certain link or company has full production capacity and workers are working overtime, it would be great news! Unfortunately, there is none.

Behind every photovoltaic worker is a family. So, how should the photovoltaic industry combat involution?

Gan Tanhao repeats some personal opinions from a few days ago:

We must make a firm decision to reform the existing photovoltaic bidding model! First of all, we must combat involution in photovoltaic bidding and stop bidding and winning at prices below cost!

We must make a firm decision to implement stricter and even harsher energy consumption double control standards and carbon emission standards in the photovoltaic industry!

We must make a firm decision to cut off all industrial investment attraction models that cause unfair competition!