The photovoltaic industry is entering a critical window for supply-side reform

“Over the past year, the photovoltaic industry has undergone a systematic reshaping amidst intense pain, with ‘major changes’ and ‘major reshuffling’ coexisting, elimination and new life occurring simultaneously, and deep differentiation and dynamic integration unfolding at the same time.” On June 10, Zhu Gongshan, chairman of Xinyi Group, stated at the 18th International Solar Photovoltaic and Smart Energy Conference (2025 SNEC).

Currently, China's photovoltaic industry is experiencing a “historic” transformation: shifting from scale expansion to value upgrading, from reliance on a single market to breaking into the global market, and from policy support to market-driven forces. With the continuous iteration of new technologies and processes, the photovoltaic industry will enter a new round of innovation cycles.

China's photovoltaic market enters the TW era

Over the past year, even in the face of industry “challenges”, the photovoltaic industry has still delivered impressive results. In 2024, global new photovoltaic installations exceeded 600GW, a year-on-year increase of over 30%, and the total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation exceeded 2.2TW, basically on par with coal-fired power generation. Among them, China's new photovoltaic installations reached 278GW, with a total installed capacity of 887GW, and its position as the second largest power source continues to be consolidated. The “photovoltaic and storage go hand in hand” approach has driven the total installed capacity of new energy storage projects to 73.8GW/168GWh, a year-on-year increase of over 130%.

In May of this year, China's photovoltaic industry reached a historic moment—cumulative installed capacity exceeded 1TW. This figure is equivalent to the total installed capacity of 1000 Three Gorges Power Stations, marking China as the first country to enter the TW-level photovoltaic market.

At the same time, overseas markets are booming, with European photovoltaic markets represented by Germany and Spain showing resilience; the United States has continuously chosen photovoltaic power generation as its top choice for new additions for many years; major markets in Asia-Pacific such as India and Pakistan are deepening their involvement; the Middle East region, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, has become a new growth pole; and emerging markets in Africa and Latin America are gradually rising.

At the conference, industry experts and entrepreneurs remained optimistic about the future development prospects of the photovoltaic industry, believing that under the confirmed background of “dual carbon”, the photovoltaic industry will still maintain linear growth for a certain period of time.

“Looking at the world, photovoltaic power generation is still one of the energy forms with the most prominent technological and economic advantages.” Zhu Gongshan pointed out that in the next 5 years, the demand for global energy transformation, as well as the urgent need for electricity for approximately 750 million people without access to electricity, will drive huge investment demand in the new energy industry, with half of it potentially flowing into the photovoltaic field.

Liang Zhipeng, a specially invited expert from the Renewable Energy Professional Committee of the China Energy Research Society, stated that China's new power system is being rapidly constructed. Data shows that in the first quarter of 2025, photovoltaic power generation already accounted for 12% of the country's electricity supply, and the installed capacity of energy storage has also historically exceeded 100GW.

Zhu Gongshan predicts that the combined effect of incremental demand in traditional markets and the potential of emerging markets will push the total global photovoltaic installed capacity to reach 5200-5800GW by 2030. Among them, the total installed capacity of the four major photovoltaic markets of China, Europe, the United States, and India could reach 3300-3800GW, and China's total photovoltaic installed capacity may reach 1800-2300GW.

Taking perovskite tandem cells as a technological singularity

Improving conversion efficiency and reducing the cost of electricity are eternal themes in the development of the photovoltaic industry. Technological innovation is the key for the photovoltaic industry to overcome cyclical challenges.

Currently, photovoltaic technology is in an active period of innovation and iteration, and the comprehensive replacement of P-type by N-type is unstoppable. Currently, mainstream N-type cells include TOPCon, heterojunction (HJT), and BC technologies.

“Many companies are still arguing about whether TOPCon, BC, or HJT is better, but I think this is meaningless.” Gao Jifan, chairman and CEO of Trina Solar, stated at the conference that these three N-type technologies are comparable, each with its own advantages in different scenarios. In his view, with the advent of perovskite tandem cells, photovoltaic technology will truly enter a new historical development stage. Gao Jifan revealed that this year, Trina Solar plans to build a pilot production line for perovskite cells, and the efficiency of its modules will increase by more than four percentage points compared to existing crystalline silicon modules.

Zhu Gongshan believes that the mass production breakthrough of perovskite cells will be a landmark event marking the arrival of the photovoltaic technology singularity, directly driving the photovoltaic industry into a new era of low-cost and low-carbon resonant productivity. “Perovskite and silicon tandem cells have a theoretical efficiency 50% higher than traditional modules, a cost 20% lower, and a carbon footprint reduction of over 50%. If tandem modules are used in the future, the photovoltaic industry will unleash huge market increments.” Zhu Gongshan analyzed that, considering factors such as power generation, cost, and green premium, a conservative estimate is that 1GW of perovskite and silicon tandem modules can increase revenue by at least 20 billion yuan over their entire lifecycle.

In his view, technological innovation in the photovoltaic industry chain will revolve around three trends: low-energy consumption and low-carbon footprint for source materials; high efficiency, high premium, and high profitability for intermediate battery and component links; and low investment, low cost, low land occupation, and high return rate for downstream power generation.

In addition, many experts emphasized that this round of photovoltaic technology innovation is not being promoted in isolation, but is characterized by parallel photovoltaic and storage, grid integration, AI collaboration, and chain reactions.

“Photovoltaics have entered the ‘post-silicon era’, and the ‘dominance of silicon’ will evolve into a mutual promotion of silicon, lithium, and carbon, and the collaboration of multiple materials. Long-duration energy storage may be fully commercialized in 5 years, with the photovoltaic and storage ratio of large-scale power stations increasing to around 10:7, and the photovoltaic and storage market expanding significantly. Coupled with superconducting grids for global energy interconnection, AI precise prediction and instantaneous scheduling, this will provide core support for building a new power system based primarily on wind and solar power.” Zhu Gongshan analyzed and emphasized.

Hou Jinlong, director and president of Huawei Digital Energy, pointed out that photovoltaic technology iteration is shifting from single-point innovation to integrated innovation, exhibiting three characteristics: scene integration, cross-industry collaboration, and diversified business models. For example, in large-scale base scenarios, single power sources are developing towards multi-energy complementation of “wind, solar, water, fire, storage, and hydrogen”, and efficient scheduling has become a necessity; in park scenarios, distributed systems are moving towards “source-grid-load-storage” integration, and the synergy of photovoltaic and storage charging and use and the maximization of comprehensive benefits are paramount. In terms of cross-industry collaboration, in addition to the accelerated integration of photovoltaic and storage with the power grid, the synergy between computing power and electricity, and data centers and new energy, has solved the problem of new energy consumption and green electricity for data centers; the integration of transportation and energy networks, and the synergy between vehicles, charging piles, and grids, are promoting the joint development of electric vehicles and new power systems.

The rapid development of artificial intelligence technology has also become a core driving force for photovoltaic and storage technology innovation. “Through the collection, analysis, and closed-loop control of massive operational data, AI is enabling photovoltaic and storage equipment to have characteristics such as ‘self-optimization, self-prediction, and self-adaptation’, transforming them into ‘intelligent bodies’. This not only improves the safe operation efficiency of equipment but also creates value throughout the entire lifecycle of the power station.” Hou Jinlong cited an example: in the operation and maintenance phase, unmanned aerial vehicle clusters and inspection robots can achieve unmanned inspection, and the AI central system can centrally monitor and solve operation and maintenance problems. In the future, reduced-staff and unmanned operation and maintenance will become standard for GW-level power stations.

A critical window period is coming in the second half of this year

The photovoltaic industry is not experiencing the cyclical iterations of three to five years as in the past, but a dress rehearsal before the arrival of a major transformation. Zhu Gongshan points out that the "photovoltaic evolution theory" simultaneously presents three major changes:

First, the industrial evolution curve has changed. From the previous linear growth within the cycle and wave-like fluctuations every three to five years, it has evolved into a spiral upward trend with an unpredictable cycle. Second, the logic of market development has been rewritten. In the past, it was policy-based, prioritized consumption, and guaranteed price and quantity; now it is fully market-oriented, full electricity access, and floating income, with "market rate of return" driving a new model for industry optimization and development. Third, the attributes of industrial boundaries have expanded. Photovoltaics have evolved from a purely power generation role to a hub connecting energy production, storage, and consumption, expanding from a "single power generation grid-connected model" to a "grid-connected and off-grid diversified power supply" model, and the market is no longer judged solely by grid-connected capacity.

It can be seen that the series of major changes taking place in the photovoltaic industry are essentially the result of the resonance of three variables: technology, market, and policy: technological iteration accelerates the elimination of backward production capacity, market mechanisms reconstruct the income model, cross-border integration expands the value boundary, and drives photovoltaics to transform from a 'participant in the energy revolution' to a 'zero-carbon system architect,' said Zhu Gongshan.

To promote the healthy development of the industry, he proposed that, on the one hand, government and enterprises should work together to promote the clearing of the market, using "market-oriented mergers and acquisitions + technological elimination mechanism + policy constraints" to reduce overcapacity, and "supply-side self-discipline + demand-side stimulus" to reduce inventory; on the other hand, it is necessary to introduce a photovoltaic green value grading system, allowing new technologies, new products, and new paradigms with high technology, high efficiency, and high quality, especially those leading in carbon value, to take the lead.

We need to change the situation where the manufacturing attributes of photovoltaics are greater than the technological attributes, forming a development closed-loop of 'R&D investment—technology premium—profit reinvestment,' allowing China's photovoltaics to shift from capacity output to a combination of 'technology standard output + localized capacity,' said Zhu Gongshan.

In Gao Jifan's view, to move towards value creation, it is necessary to take the scene as the center and build a new green energy system. "In the past, we were the main chain ecosystem; in the future, we should build a collaborative ecosystem. Only by building global and localized overall solution capabilities can we serve all mankind. The photovoltaic industry will shift from the original manufacturing dominance to the era of solution dominance." Gao Jifan put forward three proposals: industry integration, strict control of production capacity, and strengthening intellectual property protection. "The silicon material sector has already begun large-scale integration, and the downstream monocrystalline silicon ingot and wafer, cells and modules will also undergo large-scale integration. This integration is not a simple small integration; only by adopting large-scale integration can the past competitive situation be changed and a better cooperative situation be formed." Gao Jifan explained.

The future of photovoltaics will definitely be bright, and we need to work together to push the industry into a high-quality development channel. Zhu Gongshan predicts that the second half of this year to the first quarter of next year will be a key window period for supply-side reform in the photovoltaic industry.