Six Major Trends in the Development of the Photovoltaic Industry After June

2025 is a year of transformation for the photovoltaic industry. The implementation of two major policies—the "Management Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation" and the "Notice on Deepening the Market-Oriented Reform of New Energy On-Grid Electricity Prices and Promoting the High-Quality Development of New Energy" (Document No. 136)—has pointed out a new direction for industry development, bringing new challenges and opportunities. June 1st, as a key node in the implementation of the policy, marks the photovoltaic industry's full entry into a new stage of marketization, and the industry's development trends have undergone significant changes.

Trend 1: Full Market Trading Begins, Price Volatility Becomes the Norm

From June 1, 2025, new energy incremental projects will fully participate in market transactions, and on-grid electricity prices will be formed through market transactions. This means that the photovoltaic industry is leaving behind the era of relatively stable fixed electricity prices and officially entering a new era where electricity prices fluctuate with market supply and demand. For existing projects (those put into operation before June 1, 2025), the current price policy will continue to be implemented, and income will be guaranteed through a price difference settlement mechanism; that is, when the average market transaction price is lower than the mechanism electricity price, the power grid company will make up the difference. However, for incremental projects (those put into operation on or after June 1, 2025), their on-grid electricity prices will be directly affected by the market, determined by local organizations through voluntary bidding by relevant projects, with the bidding ceiling determined by the provincial price authorities based on various factors.

This change makes the investment returns of photovoltaic projects no longer stable. Enterprises need to more accurately predict market electricity price trends and reasonably plan project investments. At the same time, it also encourages enterprises to accelerate technological innovation and cost control to obtain greater profit margins in a volatile market. For example, some enterprises have begun to use big data and artificial intelligence technology to analyze the supply and demand situation of the power market and plan project construction in advance to cope with the risks brought about by electricity price fluctuations.

Trend 2: Development of Distributed Photovoltaics Is Obstructed, Short-Term Stagnation May Occur

Affected by the new policy, the development of distributed photovoltaics has seen two important time nodes—the "430" rush for full on-grid access and the "531" rush for electricity prices—leading to a new round of rush installation in the first half of 2025. However, after the rush installation, due to the inconsistent release times of mechanism electricity prices and mechanism electricity quantities in various regions, the income model for incremental projects under the new electricity price mechanism needs to be recalculated, which may cause a short-term gap or stagnation in the development of distributed photovoltaics in the second half of the year.

In particular, household photovoltaics, according to the new management policy, are divided into natural person households and non-natural person households. After June 1st, the on-grid electricity of incremental household photovoltaic projects will participate in market transactions, which poses certain difficulties for self-invested owners, and their power station installation demand may decrease. In addition, the management measures emphasize that "distributed photovoltaic power generation projects invested and developed by non-natural persons shall not be registered in the name of natural persons," which also poses a challenge to the participation of non-natural person projects in market transactions, testing the enterprises' understanding of trading rules and their ability to calculate trading electricity prices. Coupled with industry news that Guang e Bao will stop electricity fee transfer services from March 1st, this has a significant impact on platform operators, increasing costs and further suppressing the development of household photovoltaics.

Trend 3: Component Prices Rise First, Then Fall, Long-Term Return to Rationality

Since February, news of price increases for photovoltaic components has been continuous, and the rush installation has further stimulated the motivation for enterprises to raise prices. Currently, the prices of components from some first-tier enterprises are in the range of 0.71-0.78 yuan/W. As the rush installation approaches, it is expected that component prices will still have room for further increases, possibly returning to the 0.8X yuan/W era. However, after the rush installation, whether component prices will maintain an upward trend still needs to consider overseas demand, enterprise capacity control, etc. In the long term, with further adjustments to industry capacity and the balancing of market supply and demand, component prices will gradually return to rationality, and enterprises will pay more attention to product quality and technological innovation to improve market competitiveness.

Trend 4: Accelerated Technological Innovation, BC Batteries and Perovskites Emerge

Current photovoltaic technology iteration shows multiple parallel paths. The industrialization of BC batteries is accelerating, with the mass production efficiency of back contact batteries such as IBC and HPBC exceeding 26%. With higher light absorption efficiency and aesthetics, their penetration rate is rapidly increasing in distributed power stations and BIPV scenarios, and leading enterprises have already achieved GW-level capacity layout. In 2025, BC capacity is expected to increase significantly, with companies such as Longi and JA Solar expanding their capacity, and more companies joining the production of BC batteries and components. BC technology will challenge the dominant position of TOPCon.

At the same time, breakthroughs have been made in silverless and perovskite technologies. Low-temperature silver paste alternative solutions have reduced battery silver consumption to less than 10 mg/piece, reducing the non-silicon cost per watt by about 0.1 yuan; the laboratory efficiency of perovskite-silicon tandem batteries has exceeded 32%, and mass production on pilot lines is imminent, with the technology cost reduction curve continuing to steepen. The development of these new technologies will bring new development opportunities to the photovoltaic industry and promote the industry's development towards higher efficiency and lower costs.

Trend 5: Intelligent Means Become Standard, Refined Management Is Emphasized

With photovoltaic power generation participating in market transactions, accurate prediction of power generation and electricity prices has become crucial. After the cancellation of fixed electricity prices, power station owners also pay more attention to refined management and professional operation to improve system operating efficiency and power generation income. These all rely on the support of intelligent means such as AI. For example, through intelligent monitoring systems, real-time grasp of the operating status of photovoltaic power stations, timely discovery and resolution of problems, and reduction of losses caused by equipment failures; using big data analysis to optimize the operation and maintenance strategies of power stations and improve power generation efficiency. The application of intelligent means will become one of the key factors for photovoltaic companies to enhance their competitiveness.

Trend 6: Regional Characteristics Become Prominent, Layout Development Around Load

According to Document No. 136, for new energy incremental projects put into operation from June 1, 2025, the newly included annual mechanism electricity volume will be determined by local governments based on the completion of the national annual non-hydropower renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight and factors such as user affordability. In the future, the development of distributed photovoltaics will be centered around the load. For regions with a high concentration of energy-intensive enterprises and high electricity demand, the motivation for the development of distributed photovoltaics will be greater. This makes photovoltaic development show obvious regional characteristics, and enterprises will pay more attention to local energy demand and policy environment when laying out projects to improve project income and sustainability.

After June 2025, the photovoltaic industry is undergoing profound changes under the dual influence of policy guidance and market demand. Enterprises need to keep up with industry development trends, actively respond to challenges, seize opportunities, and through technological innovation, cost control, and refined management, stand out in fierce market competition and promote the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry.

(Source: Photovoltaic Broadcast)