Research on the Five Major Dilemmas and Countermeasures of China's Photovoltaic Industry

Research on the Five Major Dilemmas and Countermeasures of China's Photovoltaic Industry

Li Zeyang1, Bao Jianqiang2, Miao Yang2, Sun Dapeng1*
 

(1. School of Marxism, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310032; 2. School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310032)
 

Abstract: Against the backdrop of global energy transformation and climate change response, China's photovoltaic industry, as an important component of new energy power, has achieved remarkable development, but it also faces numerous challenges. This paper analyzes the five major dilemmas facing China's photovoltaic industry, including: project bidding dilemma, supply and demand relationship dilemma, photovoltaic product export dilemma, grid absorption dilemma, and policy regulation dilemma; and puts forward targeted solutions. By reforming the bidding mechanism for photovoltaic power generation projects, optimizing the layout of domestic demand and application, exploring new models for photovoltaic product exports, strengthening national grid infrastructure construction, and improving policy regulation mechanisms, scientific planning and layout can be used to solve the dilemma. It is hoped that this will provide theoretical support and practical guidance for the high-quality and sustainable development of China's photovoltaic industry.
 

Keywords: Photovoltaic industry; involution competition; supply and demand imbalance; policy regulation; high-quality development
 

Subject Classification Number: TM615 Document Code: A

Against the backdrop of the global community actively addressing climate change and comprehensively promoting green and transformative development, the development of the photovoltaic industry has laid an important foundation for low-carbon energy transformation. After years of hard work, continuous technological innovation, and substantial investment, China's photovoltaic industry is in a leading position globally in terms of industrial base and scale, technological advantages, and cost advantages. From 2015 to 2024, the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China has shown rapid growth, as shown in Figure 1. In 2024, the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation reached 277.57 GW, with a cumulative installed capacity of approximately 890.00 GW [1].

As of 2024, China's photovoltaic power generation industry chain has maintained a leading position globally, with a cumulative installed capacity exceeding 50% of the global total [2]. The industrial scale of polysilicon raw materials accounts for 70% to 80% of the global market scale; the photoelectric conversion efficiency of mass-produced crystalline silicon solar cells has reached 24%, ranking among the top in the world. China has successfully built a complete ecosystem of collaborative development across the entire industry chain, and the cost of photovoltaic power generation has also significantly decreased due to the substantial drop in photovoltaic component prices. From the end of 2021 to 2024, the average price of mainstream photovoltaic component products in China decreased by 65%, from 2.1 yuan/W at its peak in 2022 to around 0.7 yuan/W at the end of 2024, as shown in Figure 2. China's photovoltaic industry has not only provided a solid foundation for the low-carbon transformation of the country's energy structure but has also injected vitality into the global development of low-carbon and clean energy, powerfully promoting a widespread and profound systemic transformation of human energy utilization methods.
 

However, behind the remarkable achievements, the development of China's photovoltaic industry also hides hidden worries—"involution" competition. This competitive model directly leads to a sharp compression of the profit margins of the photovoltaic industry, a significant decline in the profitability of enterprises, and in turn, seriously affects enterprises' R&D investment and technological progress, weakening the overall risk resistance of the industry. Therefore, breaking the "involution" competition in China's photovoltaic industry, on the one hand, helps photovoltaic enterprises achieve differentiated competition and collaborative cooperation, achieve complementary advantages, win-win cooperation, stable growth, and value reconstruction, and promote high-quality and sustainable development of the industry; on the other hand, it provides a scientific basis for government departments to implement precise policies, enabling them to scientifically guide resource optimization and allocation through industrial policies, further consolidating China's leading position in the global photovoltaic industry.

Based on this, this article sorts out the trends and characteristics of the development of China's photovoltaic industry, conducts an in-depth analysis of the five major dilemmas currently faced, and proposes targeted solutions.
 

Five Major Dilemmas Facing the Development of China's Photovoltaic Industry
 

In a market economy, sufficient, reasonable, and moderate market competition can maximize efficiency, maximize resource utilization, and maximize benefit distribution, thereby promoting technological innovation and progress and achieving the survival of the fittest. However, "involution" competition is different from traditional "unfair" competition. The main difference is that "unfair" competition is a violation of market rules and will harm market order and fairness; "involution" competition refers to market entities engaging in homogeneous competition for short-term interests, compressing market prices to the limit, putting enterprises in a "neither dead nor alive" predicament, causing resource waste or market failure. "Involution" competition has led to the following five major dilemmas facing China's photovoltaic industry.
 

1.1 Project Bidding Dilemma
 

"Involution" competition has caused China's photovoltaic industry to fall into a state of "increasing volume and decreasing price," facing challenges to survival and development. Bidding for photovoltaic power generation projects is an important way to achieve optimal allocation of various factors through market-oriented means. In the process of project bidding, the low-price bidding method is an internationally common evaluation method, and it is widely used because of its simple evaluation method and objective quantification method. However, in recent years, in some project bidding processes, some enterprises, in order to win bids, have disregarded their technical capabilities and manufacturing costs and engaged in extreme price-cutting bidding. Owners and third parties have failed to establish a scientific bidding mechanism, lacking a multi-dimensional evaluation system for project quality, technical capabilities, and delivery capabilities, and have not comprehensively considered the successful execution and sustained income of the project, but have simply focused on low-price bidding, resulting in photovoltaic enterprises being overwhelmed, suffering large-scale losses, and affecting the product quality, technological innovation, and service quality of the industry. By the end of 2024, data from a large-scale photovoltaic power generation project in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region showed that the winning bid price was between 0.682 and 0.720 yuan/W, which is close to the cost price and almost constitutes loss-making production, with production enterprises already overwhelmed [2-3].
 

1.2 Supply and Demand Imbalance Dilemma
 

Behind the "involution" competition in photovoltaic enterprise bidding is the dilemma of supply and demand imbalance. Since 2020, in order to promote the green and low-carbon development of the energy structure, the state has introduced many strong policies to support the development of the photovoltaic industry. China's photovoltaic industry has made efforts across the entire industry chain, with continuous technological progress, gradually decreasing costs, continuous expansion of scale, and continuously improving competitiveness. The supply of polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and photovoltaic components has been insufficient to meet demand. However, with the influx of capital and enterprises into the photovoltaic industry, the supply and demand relationship has rapidly reversed. On the one hand, the growth rate of global photovoltaic power generation market demand has slowed; on the other hand, the production capacity of various links in China's photovoltaic power generation has expanded rapidly. This mismatch has directly led to a serious imbalance in supply and demand, and enterprises have begun to engage in "bloodbath" and "involution." According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, by the end of 2024, China's annual polysilicon production capacity has soared to 2.6 million tons, silicon wafer annual production capacity will exceed 1000 GW, solar cell annual production capacity will exceed 850 GW, and photovoltaic component annual production capacity will exceed 750 GW, far exceeding the growth rate of global photovoltaic power generation demand in the same period [1-3].
 

1.3 Photovoltaic Product Export Dilemma
 

With adjustments to overseas trade policies, the export of new energy industries is facing significant pressure. The export of photovoltaic products to European and American markets is proving difficult, intensifying "involution" among domestic enterprises, a situation requiring high-level attention and concern. In 2024, Europe was the largest overseas market for China's photovoltaic power generation applications, with an installed capacity of nearly 100 GW; the United States ranked second, at approximately 50 GW; together, the European and American markets accounted for 54% of the total overseas market (280 GW). With the EU's promulgation of the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD)[4] and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD)[5], sustainability-related issues such as "product carbon footprint" and "photovoltaic waste disposal" have become new trade barriers for Chinese photovoltaic products entering the EU[6]. The United States, under the guise of "protecting its domestic photovoltaic industry," has misused the concept of "national security" to impose high anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on Chinese photovoltaic products, with the highest tariff exceeding 200%. In addition, the United States has implemented "double anti-dumping" policies against the production capacity of Southeast Asian photovoltaic enterprises, which has also negatively impacted the exports of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises. Data from Chinese customs shows that from January to February 2024, China's photovoltaic product exports totaled US$63.36 billion, a decrease of 27.95% compared to the same period last year (US$87.94 billion).
 

1.4 Power Consumption Dilemma
 

Due to the intermittent and unstable nature of photovoltaic power generation, the power output of such power generation systems is unstable, posing challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power grid. As the penetration rate of new energy in the power grid increases, the problem of photovoltaic power consumption becomes increasingly prominent. When the penetration rate of new energy exceeds 15%, the cost of the power system will enter a critical point of rapid growth. In fact, in 2024, the penetration rate of new energy in China's power grid has reached 17%. Data from the National New Energy Consumption Monitoring and Early Warning Center shows that China's photovoltaic power generation utilization rate is between 96% and 98%, but with the growth of the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation, the photovoltaic power generation utilization rate faces the risk of declining to 92%–95%. Therefore, accelerating the improvement of new energy consumption capacity and enhancing the flexibility and security of the power grid have become major needs for the high-quality and sustainable development of the photovoltaic industry.
 

In 2024, China's cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation reached 840 million kW, of which centralized photovoltaic power generation accounted for approximately 56%, and distributed photovoltaic power generation accounted for approximately 44%. Due to lagging consumption capacity construction, imperfect market mechanisms, and insufficient power system regulation capacity, the promotion and application of photovoltaic power generation projects are facing pressure. In addition, China's energy resource endowment and electricity load are inversely distributed. The insufficient cross-provincial and cross-regional channel construction capacity of centralized photovoltaic power generation in central and western regions is a rigid constraint on photovoltaic power consumption. The insufficient capacity of the power grid to accommodate distributed photovoltaic power generation also affects the sustainable development of industrial and commercial and household photovoltaic power generation. Problems such as the asymmetry of time and space between photovoltaic power generation and power grid electricity load have constrained both the consumption and demand sides of the photovoltaic industry, urgently requiring solutions.
 

1.5 Government Policy Dilemma
 

In the past 10 years, the country has introduced a series of policies to promote the development and application of the photovoltaic industry, especially the subsidy policies of the national and local governments, which have played a significant role in the early growth of the photovoltaic industry. Some local governments have tried their best to use policies to develop the photovoltaic industry, and some enterprises have been very active, but there has been a great deal of blindness. Many local officials, in pursuit of short-term GDP growth and political achievements, blindly offered high subsidies to photovoltaic enterprises, blindly expanded production capacity, and engaged in low-price dumping, disrupting the competitive order, resulting in overcapacity of low-end production capacity and enterprises facing difficulties[7]. The policy dilemma facing the development of the photovoltaic industry is specifically reflected in the fact that local governments and enterprises, on the one hand, hold high the banner of developing new energy, but on the other hand, regardless of the actual situation (for example, local resources are not abundant, enterprises lack the necessary technical conditions, etc.) and market changes, they blindly attract investment and rely on "providing land and policies" to attract enterprises. Some enterprises have transformed into photovoltaic power generation, and a large amount of capital has poured into the photovoltaic industry, directly leading to an imbalance in supply and demand, overcapacity, and large-scale losses among enterprises. To this end, in October 2013, the State Council's "Guiding Opinions on Resolving the Contradiction of Severe Overcapacity" (Guofa [2013] No. 41) proposed for the first time: "Comprehensively rectify involutionary competition and regulate the behavior of local governments and enterprises." This measure is highly targeted.
 

2 Countermeasures for the Five Dilemmas of the Photovoltaic Industry
 

2.1 Establishing a Multi-Dimensional Evaluation System for Bidding
 

Low-price bidding for photovoltaic power generation projects in China is a manifestation of "involutionary" competition in the industry. The underlying reason is that the bidding index system and project evaluation system in project bidding are overly focused on low-price factors, ignoring cost and quality, distorting the essence of market competition—comprehensive competition and survival of the fittest. Therefore, it is urgently necessary to reform the existing low-price bidding mechanism and establish a multi-dimensional evaluation system of "technology-cost-quality-service"[8]. We can learn from Germany's comprehensive scoring system of "technology-price-sustainability"[9], emphasizing market-driven technological innovation.

The government should issue technical standards and scoring rules, clarify technical standards and efficiency thresholds, require enterprises to submit technical proposals and sustainability commitment documents before bidding; independent third-party institutions should conduct audits to ensure data authenticity, and encourage advantageous enterprises (i.e., domestic enterprises with significant advantages in technological research and development, cost control, product quality, service capabilities, and sustainability in multi-dimensional competition) to participate in project bidding.

It is necessary to mandatorily require comprehensive evaluation of the advanced nature of the technical proposals submitted by enterprises in the bidding process (e.g., photovoltaic component power generation efficiency, photovoltaic power generation system reliability), delivery capacity (e.g., past project fulfillment rate), and full life-cycle service capabilities (e.g., full life-cycle maintenance capabilities), dividing the evaluation criteria into several parts such as technical bids, commercial bids, and sustainability bids. Implementing differentiated bidding strategies, setting special technical thresholds for special environment projects to avoid low-price dumping. Through the photovoltaic industry association to formulate scientific bidding guidelines for photovoltaic power generation projects, guiding enterprises to shift from price competition to value competition.
 

2.2 Starting from Domestic Demand and Focusing on Applications
 

"Involutionary" competition in China's photovoltaic industry mainly stems from the imbalance between supply and demand and overcapacity, with enterprises competing to undercut each other in bidding for engineering projects. The national and local governments should maintain relatively stable market demand and project arrangements to eliminate inventory and overcapacity, easing the contradiction between supply and demand and the pressure of involution. Since the application of photovoltaic power generation involves land use, public resource allocation, enterprise participation, end users, and the construction of power grid infrastructure (e.g., upgrading transmission lines, expanding ultra-high voltage projects), it is necessary to start from the demand side and focus on applications. It requires concerted efforts from multiple parties to jointly solve the development dilemma of the photovoltaic industry. This can be promoted in the following four aspects.
 

1) Promoting centralized photovoltaic power generation projects in central and western regions. Unified layout and planning should be adopted, and multiple models should be used to promote development, leveraging the collaborative development and complementary advantages of state-owned enterprises, central enterprises, and private enterprises to ensure the stability and sustainability of photovoltaic power generation projects in central and western regions.
 

2) Develop commercial and industrial photovoltaic power plants. Starting with the national creation of "zero-carbon parks," conduct a comprehensive survey and statistics of the available rooftop resources of enterprises and factories that can be installed with photovoltaic power generation, and promote it in a planned and step-by-step manner. Currently, the "photovoltaic + energy storage" model for rooftop development in industrial parks is very mature, the price of photovoltaic components continues to decline, the return on investment in photovoltaic power generation has increased significantly, the economic and social benefits are prominent, and the internal market driving force has increased, but it still requires strong support from government, State Grid, and other relevant departments to improve efficiency.
 

3) Continuously promote the application and promotion of photovoltaic power generation in public buildings. For various newly built public buildings and facilities, such as government office buildings, hospitals, and schools, as well as state-owned construction land, the requirement of installing distributed photovoltaic power generation wherever possible should be met.
 

4) Promote the construction of "zero-carbon villages." Based on the improvement of models and experience such as agricultural photovoltaic complementation, fishery photovoltaic complementation, and pastoral photovoltaic complementation, focus on planning the construction of rural "zero-carbon villages" for 10-15 years as an important part of rural revitalization and new rural construction, achieving a comprehensive green and low-carbon transformation of rural energy structures.
 

2.3 Explore new export models for photovoltaic products
 

Although Chinese photovoltaic products are of high quality and low price, they have not been widely welcomed in the European and American markets. This is related to great power games, geopolitics, and foreign photovoltaic industry protection policies. Therefore, enterprises should focus on business and respond differently.
 

For European countries, targeted business agents should be sought, utilizing the strong environmental awareness in Europe to promote Chinese photovoltaic power generation projects and infiltrate Chinese brands. For the EU, relevant laws and regulations need to be studied, such as jointly studying the "carbon footprint of Chinese photovoltaic products" project, familiarizing oneself with the rules of the game and regulatory processes; investing in the construction of institutions similar to the "Sino-European Photovoltaic Product Waste Recycling and Resource Utilization Research and Processing Center (this is a virtual institution named by the author)" to enhance the overall image and soft power of Chinese photovoltaic companies in Europe [6].

For the United States, the characteristics of the US government's tariff policies should be thoroughly studied, and the export of photovoltaic products should be included in Sino-US trade negotiations and tariff negotiations, striving to eliminate various obstacles and strategically and comprehensively solve the difficulties in exporting photovoltaic products. In terms of the regional layout of photovoltaic product exports, the markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East (including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey), and Africa should be actively and diversifiedly developed. Overseas chambers of commerce should be organized or utilized, relationships and channels should be leveraged, and with the care and assistance of the diplomatic department, the export of photovoltaic products should be promoted in a planned, step-by-step, and focused manner, raising the banner of ecological environmental protection, green and low-carbon development, and energy transformation in China. In terms of export models, "going global" together should be advocated, with a high position and a broad vision, aiming to become an international photovoltaic giant, achieving win-win cooperation. Do not bring "involution" abroad, but rather have the upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry chain jointly export, and diversify cross-industry cooperation exports. Through localization and agent output, the management model, channels, brands, and technologies of the Chinese photovoltaic industry should be exported, contributing replicable green and low-carbon development solutions to the world, driving countries to participate in the green and low-carbon clean energy transformation, and reshaping a new pattern of global green and low-carbon energy development.
 

2.4 Strengthen the construction of national grid infrastructure
 

In the face of the growth of new energy electricity, in order to enhance the national grid's ability to absorb new energy, efforts should be made in the following aspects.
 

1) The State Grid should accelerate the construction of a strong smart grid, increase investment in power transmission channels and upgrading and transformation, open up channels for the transmission of photovoltaic power generation resources from resource-rich areas to load centers, improve transmission convenience, and ensure that the utilization rate of photovoltaic power generation is above 96%.
 

2) Construct a new power system to achieve the integration of "source-grid-load-storage" and multi-energy complementation, and form an intelligent, digital, and rapid-response power control system for multi-energy complementation. Utilize synchronous grids, complementary power structures, thermal power regulating units, grid-side/on-site energy storage, and other conditions and measures to improve the grid's ability to absorb and regulate photovoltaic power generation.
 

3) Construct energy storage systems from the generation side, grid side, and user side. On the generation side, energy storage systems should be used to smooth output power and improve the stability of power supply; on the grid side, energy storage systems should be used as a buffer for the grid to regulate the grid's power balance and improve the grid's ability to accept new energy power; on the user side, energy storage systems should be used to achieve energy self-sufficiency and surplus electricity storage, reducing the pressure on the grid's absorption.
 

4) Optimize power dispatching and operation mechanisms, build and improve mechanisms such as electricity spot markets, futures trading markets, ancillary service markets, and capacity markets, and use market-oriented means to improve the absorption capacity of photovoltaic power generation.
 

2.5 Maintain confidence, scientific planning and layout
 

The development of China's photovoltaic industry is accompanied by both opportunities and challenges, hopes and difficulties. The cyclical fluctuations in the profits of the photovoltaic industry are a normal phenomenon, and solving the problem of overcapacity cannot be achieved overnight.
 

1) Maintain confidence. Strive to consolidate China's leading position in the photovoltaic industry in terms of scale, capacity, cost, technology, and innovation. From the perspective of demand in the next 10-20 years, the photovoltaic industry has enormous development space and potential. According to the prediction of the International Energy Agency (IEA), photovoltaic power generation will become the core force driving the rapid development of global renewable energy; by 2030, 80% of the newly added 5500 GW of clean energy capacity worldwide is expected to come from solar power generation (of which, photovoltaic power generation accounts for more than 95%) [10]. According to IEA statistics, every newly added 1 GW of photovoltaic power generation capacity is equivalent to reducing about 1 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions.
 

2) Acknowledge advantages. The advantages of China's photovoltaic industry cannot be weakened or destroyed by "involution" competition. The government and the industry need to join hands with the State Grid and related financial and technological enterprises to comprehensively and systematically solve problems, eliminate bottlenecks, overcome difficulties, and alleviate the contradictions of involution. It is necessary to "turn danger into opportunity, turn difficulties into ease, and lighten the load."
 

3) Scientific planning. The government should start the "15th Five-Year Plan" for the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry as soon as possible, and simultaneously launch at least 10 sub-plans in related fields, such as: layout and planning for the development of the photovoltaic industry; infrastructure construction planning for the State Grid to adapt to the rapid development of photovoltaic power generation; layout and planning for the export of Chinese photovoltaic products; coordinated development planning for the financial system and the photovoltaic industry; technological innovation development planning to promote the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry; planning for the construction and development of the green electricity market, etc. Scientific planning and layout are not only a historical review, experience summary, and problem analysis of the development of the photovoltaic industry, but also a prospect of the future development direction of the photovoltaic industry.

The key to solving the dilemma of "involution" competition lies in comprehensive and systematic planning, improving the dual regulatory mechanism of combining market function with government guidance, building a coordinated development pattern, coordinating regional layout, promoting mergers and acquisitions of advantageous enterprises, achieving win-win cooperation, and achieving high-quality and sustainable development of the photovoltaic industry. China's photovoltaic industry will make important contributions to achieving the "dual carbon" goals and promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of the energy structure through technological innovation and industrial upgrading, and will also inject Chinese wisdom and strength into the global low-carbon energy development.
 

3 Conclusions
 

This article examines the trends and characteristics of the development of China's photovoltaic industry. While acknowledging the achievements made, it conducts an in-depth analysis of the challenges facing the photovoltaic industry and proposes targeted solutions. The following conclusions are drawn: For the predicament of project bidding, it is suggested to establish a multi-dimensional evaluation system for photovoltaic power generation project bidding; For the predicament of supply and demand imbalance, it is proposed to start from the domestic demand side and exert efforts from the application side; For the predicament of photovoltaic product exports, it is suggested to explore new export models and cooperate with major markets such as Europe and the United States in a targeted manner; In the face of the predicament of grid absorption, it is emphasized that the construction of national grid infrastructure should be strengthened; Regarding the predicament of government regulation, it is emphasized that confidence should be strengthened, and scientific planning and layout should be carried out. Through the implementation of the above measures, it is expected to promote the high-quality and sustainable development of China's photovoltaic industry, and contribute important strength to China's achievement of the "dual carbon" goal and the global energy transition.
 

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