Photovoltaic Policy Trends in 2025: An In-depth Analysis from National Regulations to Local Practices

I. Policy Decoding: Top-Level Design and Key Turning Points for the Photovoltaic Industry in 2025

(1) National Policies: A Systemic Restructuring from Subsidy-Driven to Market-Based Mechanisms

At the beginning of 2025, the National Energy Administration's release of the "Management Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation" and the "Notice on Deepening the Market-Oriented Reform of New Energy On-Grid Electricity Prices" marked the official entry of the photovoltaic industry into the "post-subsidy era." The new regulations clearly state April 30 as the termination point for the "full on-grid" policy for commercial and industrial distributed photovoltaics. After this date, projects will need to adopt a "self-generation and use + surplus electricity on-grid" model. A supporting "differential contract price" mechanism will be established, with electricity prices formed through market transactions. This ensures the stability of existing project returns while also driving increased technological and economic efficiency for new projects. Simultaneously, the acceleration of green certificate trading and carbon market integration, and the mandatory increase of green electricity consumption for newly built data centers to 80% in 2025, will promote the explicit manifestation of the environmental value of photovoltaics.

(2) Local Regulations: Regional Opportunities and Challenges under Diversified Exploration

Provinces are implementing national policies with distinct regional characteristics. In North China, regions like Hebei and Tianjin are strengthening the integration of "photovoltaics + agriculture/ocean." Hebei Qinhuangdao's 1800-megawatt offshore photovoltaic project uses grid-type platform technology to explore deep-sea development paths; Tianjin Jizhou District's 150-megawatt agricultural photovoltaic complementary project achieves "dual use of one land," boosting the collective economy of villages and towns. In Southwest China, represented by Sichuan, the Hongyuan 250-megawatt grid-type energy storage photovoltaic power station innovates the "photovoltaic + animal husbandry" model. The height of the support structure is optimized to 2 meters, balancing power generation and grazing, becoming a model for eco-friendly projects in high-altitude areas. In East China, policies focus on the large-scale development of distributed photovoltaics. Zhejiang Ouhai provides a 0.1 yuan/kWh electricity price subsidy, while Shanghai Qingpu requires new buildings to have over 50% rooftop photovoltaic coverage, promoting BIPV (Building-Integrated Photovoltaics) from business parks to public buildings.

 

II. Regional Dynamics: Implementation and Model Innovation of Photovoltaic Projects in Various Provinces and Cities in 2025

(1) Offshore Photovoltaics: Breakthrough Practices from Nearshore to Deep Sea

The 1800-megawatt offshore photovoltaic project under construction in the waters of Hebei Qinhuangdao, as Hebei Province's first offshore photovoltaic demonstration project, has a total investment of 14.4 billion yuan. It uses corrosion-resistant grid-type platform technology, suitable for water depths of 6-15 meters. It is expected to generate 2.75 billion kWh of electricity annually, equivalent to saving 840,000 tons of standard coal per year. The advancement of this project not only provides clean electricity for the Bohai Rim region but also explores engineering standards and maintenance models for deep-sea photovoltaic development, accumulating experience for the three-dimensional development of "offshore granary + photovoltaic power station."

(2) Plateau Photovoltaics: Synergistic Demonstration of Ecological Protection and Energy Development

The Sichuan Hongyuan Anqu 250-megawatt photovoltaic power station achieved full-capacity grid connection at an altitude of 4010 meters, innovating a "grid-type energy storage + ecological restoration" model. Intelligent control technology ensures the stability of the high-proportion renewable energy grid, while the 2-meter raised support structure reduces grassland shading and promotes vegetation recovery, forming a virtuous cycle of "power generation above, animal husbandry below." The project's annual power generation is 450 million kWh, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 400,000 tons, becoming a benchmark for the synergistic development of "photovoltaics + ecology" in the western Sichuan plateau.

(3) Commercial and Industrial Photovoltaics: Restructuring of Revenue Models under Electricity Price Market-Oriented Reforms

As the "430" and "531" policy deadlines approach, commercial and industrial photovoltaics in Shandong, Guangdong, and other regions are experiencing a "rush to install." Shandong Province allows enterprises to independently choose 15% of their electricity to participate in electricity market transactions, flexibly adapting to fluctuations in spot market prices; Guangdong Province is promoting pilot programs for "cross-wall power sales" in industrial parks, reducing enterprise electricity costs through direct green electricity supply. Against this backdrop, companies such as Tongwei and Trina Solar are launching high-power components (such as Tongwei's 210N component with a power output of 725W), combined with energy storage integration solutions (such as Sigi New Energy's commercial and industrial hybrid inverters), increasing project returns by 0.3%-0.5%, effectively offsetting the uncertainty in returns brought about by electricity price market-oriented reforms.

 

III. Industry Impact: Corporate Responses and Technological Breakthroughs during the Policy Fluctuation Period

(1) Installed Capacity: Adjustment from Rapid Expansion to Structural Optimization

The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that global new installations will reach 531-583 GW in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10%, but the domestic market, affected by the transitional period of distributed policies, is expected to see new installations of 215-255 GW, potentially experiencing a temporary decline. Companies are accelerating their shift to emerging markets such as the Middle East and Latin America. In 2024, component exports to Pakistan and Saudi Arabia increased by over 30%, and overseas localization capacity layout is accelerating. Tongwei and Longi have built battery component factories in Southeast Asia to avoid EU carbon tariffs and US ITC tariffs.

(2) Technological Iteration: N-type Dominance and Mass Production of Tandem Technology

In 2025, the market share of N-type batteries is expected to exceed 50%, with the average efficiency of TOPCon reaching 25.4%. HJT batteries, through secondary sintering technology, will increase the open-circuit voltage to 740mV, optimizing power generation performance in high-temperature environments by 2%. Longi and JA Solar are accelerating the implementation of BC technology. Longi's Hi-MO9 component is designed for ground power stations, with a price premium of up to 15%; perovskite tandem technology has entered the pilot test phase. Tongwei's Shuangliu base has built a 300,000-square-meter R&D center, focusing on heterojunction and perovskite cutting-edge technologies, aiming to achieve a tandem component efficiency of over 28% in 2025.

(3) Industrial Chain Restructuring: Price Wars Force Capacity Clearance and Cross-border Integration

In 2024, polysilicon and component prices fell by 39% and 29%, respectively, with 33 listed companies reporting losses exceeding 35 billion yuan, and the industry's capacity utilization rate falling below 60%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting capacity clearance by raising technical standards (such as N-type silicon wafer thickness ≤130μm), while encouraging integrated "photovoltaic + energy storage" projects. Guangdong and Ningxia have clearly defined a 10%-30% energy storage ratio, prompting companies to transform from single manufacturing to comprehensive service providers of "power generation + power sales + energy storage."

 

IV. Future Outlook: Finding a New Balance under the Dual Drive of Policy and Market

(1) Short-Term Challenges: Dual Tests of Electricity Price Mechanisms and Absorption Capacity

After the full market entry of distributed photovoltaic (PV), enterprises need to strengthen their power market analysis capabilities and establish a linked model of "electricity price prediction - energy storage configuration - load response." On the grid side, it is necessary to accelerate the intelligent transformation of the distribution network. Beijing and Shanghai are piloting a "observable, measurable, adjustable, and controllable" four-in-one system to improve the carrying capacity of distributed PV access. At the same time, the fluctuation in green certificate trading prices (the average price of green certificates in Q4 2024 fell by 15%) and the lack of a mechanism for sharing energy storage costs still require further policy clarification.

(II) Long-term opportunities: Scenario expansion and global cooperation open up incremental space

Integrated PV and energy storage, offshore PV, and zero-carbon parks are becoming new growth poles. It is expected that the installed capacity of PV and energy storage projects will reach 20% in 2025, and new offshore PV installations will exceed 10GW. In the international market, the electricity demand in countries jointly building the "Belt and Road" initiative has surged, with the annual new installed capacity growth rate in the Middle East and Africa exceeding 30%. Chinese companies, through the "technology export + local manufacturing" model, have achieved a market share exceeding 40% in markets such as Saudi Arabia and Chile. In terms of policy, international cooperation such as the EU green electricity trading mechanism and the ASEAN renewable energy interconnection plan is accelerating, opening up new channels for the globalization of PV.

(III) Industry transformation: A qualitative change from scale competition to value competition

Wang Bohua emphasized at the photovoltaic industry seminar that the industry needs to shift from "scale expansion" to "high-quality development." The focus of enterprise competition has shifted from simply reducing costs to technological value-added and service value-added. For example, Tongwei's demonstration base verifies the adaptability of multi-scenario technologies, and Trina Solar's integrated "PV + energy storage" solution improves the project IRR (internal rate of return) by 1.2 percentage points. As policy dividends shift from "subsidy-driven" to "mechanism-guided," enterprises with technological reserves, market judgment, and resource integration capabilities will establish advantages in the next cycle.

In 2025, the photovoltaic industry is undergoing a "double baptism" of policy shocks and market restructuring. From offshore PV brackets in North China to plateau PV panels in Southwest China, from industrial and commercial rooftops in the east to Gobi desert bases in the west, the "command stick" of policy and the "invisible hand" of the market are jointly drawing a new picture of energy transformation. For practitioners, only by deeply cultivating technological innovation, accurately grasping the policy rhythm, and actively embracing market changes can they set their direction in this transformation and sail towards the new blue ocean of "high-quality development" in the photovoltaic industry.