Document No. 136 Takes Effect: The Photovoltaic Industry Bids Farewell to the 'Greenhouse,' Who's Laughing? Who's Crying?

Document No. 136, issued by the National Development and Reform Commission in 2025, officially declares the end of the 'policy protection film' for the new energy industry, pushing the photovoltaic industry onto a fully market-oriented competitive stage. This reform, although described as 'weaning,' is actually a necessary step for the industry to mature. Today, let's discuss the impact of Document No. 136 on the photovoltaic industry. (Welcome everyone to leave comments and exchange ideas.)

I. Core Policy: Market-Oriented Electricity Prices + Price Difference Settlement Mechanism

The core logic of Document No. 136 can be summarized as 'two axes,' requiring clarification of policy boundaries and implementation details:

1. Fully Market-Oriented Electricity Prices
   All photovoltaic projects (except concentrated solar power and offshore wind power projects that have already been competitively allocated) must enter the electricity market for trading. Electricity prices are determined by supply and demand, and fixed electricity prices and guaranteed purchases are cancelled.
   Impact: Electricity prices during peak photovoltaic generation periods may be under pressure. For example, in the pilot program of the Shandong and Shanxi spot markets, extremely imbalanced supply and demand have resulted in short-term negative electricity prices. Peak-hour electricity prices are affected by demand response mechanisms, and the actual fluctuation range needs to be Combined with regional grid load curve analysis 。
2. Price Difference Settlement Mechanism 'Two-Way Adjustment'
   When the market electricity price is lower than the mechanism electricity price determined through market-based bidding by the provincial price-regulating authorities, the grid company makes up the difference; if the market electricity price is higher than the mechanism electricity price, the power station must return the difference. For example, a photovoltaic power station in Shandong locked in a mechanism electricity price of 0.32 yuan/kWh through bidding. When the midday electricity price plummeted to 0.05 yuan/kWh, it received a price difference compensation, but if the price rose to 0.35 yuan/kWh, it would have to return a price difference of 0.03 yuan/kWh.
   Key Details: There are differences in the scale of mechanism electricity, electricity prices, and implementation periods for existing projects (put into operation before June 1, 2025) and incremental projects (put into operation thereafter). Incremental projects need to be linked to the local non-hydropower renewable energy consumption responsibility weight.

II. Industry Pain Points: Five Real Challenges

1. Increased Revenue Fluctuations, Enterprises Need Fine-Grained Operations
   Distributed photovoltaics are the first to bear the brunt. In the Shanxi spot market, photovoltaic electricity prices have fallen to 0.087 yuan/kWh, a decrease of more than 70% compared to the benchmark price of coal-fired power, but it should be noted that this data represents short-term fluctuations in extreme scenarios. Corporate response strategies include:

• Leading companies such as Trina Solar are accelerating the deployment of energy storage and virtual power plants to improve revenue through peak-shaving discharge;
• Household photovoltaics can explore the "self-generation and self-use + surplus electricity grid connection" model to reduce direct exposure to market electricity prices.

1. Technological Route Diversification: The Value of Tracking Mounts Is Highlighted
   Traditional fixed mounts suffer from reduced revenue due to the mismatch between the power generation curve and the peak and valley electricity prices (midday power generation accounts for 60%, but electricity prices are low). Tracking mounts adjust the angle to increase peak and off-peak power generation by 40%, increasing overall revenue by 15%-20% (needs to be dynamically calculated based on the electricity price curve).
   Case Study: CITIC Guoan's Tianji II tracking system can still operate stably in windy environments, increasing annual revenue by over 10 million yuan per project.
2. Cost Pressure Forces Industry 'Downsizing'
   Inverter and mounting system manufacturers are shifting from 'selling hardware' to 'selling services.' GoodWe has launched a "hardware + algorithm + operation and maintenance" package solution, using AI to optimize power generation strategies and reduce the cost of electricity by 20%.
   Industry Restructuring: Small and medium-sized enterprises are accelerating their exit due to technological backwardness and high costs. In 2024, the CR5 (market concentration) of the energy storage industry was 58% (global market data, the concentration of the Chinese market is lower).
3. Unsolved Consumption Problems, Market-Oriented Needs Supporting Upgrades
   The penetration rate of new energy installations in Shandong has reached 47%, but the proportion of power generation is only 13%, far lower than Germany's 47%. Although market-based trading can alleviate the abandonment of power generation, grid upgrades (such as flexible transmission technology) and energy storage support are still key.
4. Green Certificates and Market-Oriented Games, Enterprises Need to Balance Revenue
   Electricity included in the price difference settlement mechanism cannot simultaneously obtain green certificate revenue. Enterprises need to balance environmental value and electricity revenue. Large enterprises such as Tencent have limited power transmission capacity for green electricity procurement, and the contract fulfillment rate is less than 50%. This needs to be solved through distributed power generation for nearby consumption.

III. Long-Term Opportunities: From 'Price War' to 'Value War'

1. Photovoltaic and Storage Integration Becomes Standard
   Energy storage has become a "must-have" from "optional." A supercharging station in Jiangsu has achieved 80% self-use of green electricity through "photovoltaic + energy storage," saving over one million yuan in electricity costs annually.
   Trend: The cost of sodium-ion batteries is 20%-30% lower than that of lithium iron phosphate batteries (laboratory data, after large-scale application in 2025), and the energy storage matching rate may exceed 80%, but performance indicators such as cycle life need to be considered.
2. Virtual Power Plants Activate Distributed Value
   Photovoltaics are aggregated with charging piles and adjustable loads to participate in demand response and ancillary service markets. A park in Zhejiang, by adjusting air conditioning loads (adjustable capacity 10MW, peak-valley electricity price difference 1.2 yuan/kWh), achieved a single response revenue of 14,400 yuan.
3. Household Photovoltaics Remain a 'Potential Stock'
   The penetration rate of household photovoltaics in China is only 12% (data at the end of 2024), with over 80 million developable rooftops and a market capacity of 1600GW. Trina Solar is exploring a new path of "photovoltaic + rural revitalization" through green certificate trading and power sales services.

IV. Opportunities and Risks for Ordinary People

• Is Installing Household Photovoltaics Still Worthwhile?
  Short-term electricity price fluctuations may affect the payback period (from 6 years to 8 years, considering regional differences and energy storage support), but in the long run, green electricity premiums and carbon asset appreciation are still benefits. It is recommended to choose an "integrated photovoltaic and storage" solution and sign a long-term power purchase agreement (such as direct trading with industrial and commercial users).
• How to Avoid Pitfalls When Investing in Photovoltaic Power Stations?
  Prioritize centralized power stations equipped with tracking mounts and energy storage, pay attention to regional electricity price policies (such as time-of-use electricity price mechanisms) and consumption capacity, and avoid blindly pursuing low initial investment. Distributed power stations can participate in the market through aggregated trading, with stronger risk hedging capabilities.

Conclusion: After the pain, photovoltaics remain a "sunrise" industry

Document No. 136 has torn away the industry's "hotbed," but it has also opened the floodgates to high-quality development. In the short term, electricity price fluctuations and cost pressures have left companies "walking on thin ice"; in the long term, technological iterations (such as perovskite batteries, intelligent operation and maintenance), and market expansion (such as emerging overseas markets) will nurture new giants. As industry insiders say, "The strongest ability of photovoltaics is to cope with change." In this transformation, those that survive will ultimately thrive.