The photovoltaic industry has been disrupted. The single-point power generation profit model will be eliminated. What will the future of the photovoltaic industry look like?

 

In 2025, the photovoltaic industry will be completely reshaped and enter a period of deep reform.

With the implementation of the 430 policy, the era of full grid-connection has ended. Only two days remain until 430, and in these past two days, many friends have contacted us saying they cannot connect to the grid. Inability to connect to the grid is quite normal; such a large amount of work needs to be connected to the grid within a month. Previously, there was no planning; permits were issued as long as there was an application, right? Those who understand, understand. Current photovoltaic projects must primarily focus on self-generation and self-consumption, with surplus power feeding into the grid as a secondary function. It is no longer the single-point power generation profit model of "the more you build, the more you sell.". The 531 node is even more thorough, with newly added wind, solar, and storage projects fully entering the electricity market, engaging in free bidding, and officially ending the fixed-price grid-connection model. Neither quantity nor price is guaranteed!

Policy changes mean that a revolutionary transformation of the photovoltaic industry has begun.
If your thinking is still stuck in the past model of building a power plant, generating electricity, selling it to the grid, and making money per kilowatt-hour, then you are destined to be left behind in this wave.

So, what will the future of the photovoltaic industry look like? To put it more broadly, how should the entire new energy industry proceed? I believe the future will be a model of integrated, diversified, and comprehensive energy system transformation! Today, let's discuss these issues (If you find this helpful, please follow, like, and share with friends who need it. Please point out any mistakes in the comments section).

I. The Future of Photovoltaics: From Single-Point Generation to Integrated, Closed-Loop Operation

The photovoltaic industry will completely abandon the simple, linear model of "generating and selling electricity" and enter a new ecosystem of integrated energy management, including source-grid-load-storage-carbon, multi-energy complementation, and comprehensive energy management.

1. Source-Grid-Load-Storage Integration (Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu have been exploring this)

That is, "source" (photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage) + "grid" (smart grid access) + "load" (load management) + "storage" (energy storage scheduling) to achieve real-time intelligent linkage between power generation, power consumption, and power storage, improving self-consumption rates, peak shaving and valley filling, optimizing load curves, and reducing power curtailment and transaction risks.

2. Photovoltaic-Storage-Charging Integration

Photovoltaic systems directly cooperate with energy storage and charging piles to build a "self-generation and self-consumption + green electricity charging + vehicle-grid interaction" model. Especially with the popularization of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic charging stations and super charging stations will become standard in the future.

3. Integrated Comprehensive Energy Services (Virtual Power Plants, etc.)

It involves not only electricity management but also the comprehensive utilization of various energy media such as cold, heat, water, and gas, for example:

Using surplus electricity for cooling and heating, photovoltaic hydrogen production, intelligent scheduling of gas and water systems, and conducting various energy transactions, truly achieving optimization and decarbonization of the entire scene and the entire energy system.

 

Next, let's break down how the household, commercial, industrial park, and remote mountain area photovoltaic industries should operate in the future, what capabilities they need, and which direction they should develop.

II. Household Photovoltaics: From Individual Development to Integrated Village Operation

In the past, household photovoltaic models were "developed household by household." After installation, the electricity was directly sold to the grid, with simple and straightforward returns. This is for enterprises, not natural persons. If individuals want to install it themselves, they still need to consider the proportion of self-generation and self-consumption. You can only sell the surplus electricity at the price set by the grid.
Because now, distributed generation has also entered the electricity trading market. To sell the power generated by small power plants, they must participate in market transactions and are no longer unconditionally purchased at high prices by the grid.

The correct way to develop household photovoltaics in the future is:

Develop the entire village as a single unit, planning it as a whole; prioritize self-consumption; if there is surplus, store it using a distribution-level energy storage system for nighttime use, thereby improving the consumption rate; the remaining electricity can be aggregated into a virtual power plant (VPP), with the entire village treated as a single unit participating in the electricity market; participate in intelligent scheduling + intelligent trading, automatically optimizing power generation, power consumption, and power sales. Household photovoltaics will become commercialized, professionalized, and intelligent.

III. Commercial and Industrial Photovoltaics: Energy-Carbon Integration, Carbon as a New Economic Indicator

In the future, commercial and industrial photovoltaics will no longer simply focus on reducing electricity costs and increasing efficiency; the main goal will be to reduce carbon costs and improve carbon competitiveness. Why?

Because starting in 2026, China will fully implement "product carbon footprint management."
In other words, whether a product can be successfully exported and sold at a good price will largely depend on the level of carbon emissions during production. This is why the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments recently issued the "Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of the Green Electricity Certificate Market for Renewable Energy." In the future, developing commercial and industrial photovoltaics will not only involve calculating cost-benefit but also understanding the dual-carbon strategy, green electricity trading, green certificate applications, carbon footprint verification, carbon emission report compilation, and energy-saving transformations.

Photovoltaics are only the first step, the foundation, and the "vanguard".

The true value of commercial and industrial photovoltaics in the future will be "comprehensive energy cost reduction + carbon asset management."

IV. Industrial Parks: Direct Green Electricity Connection, Zero-Carbon Parks

In the past, industrial parks operated on a model of "unified connection to the large power grid; whoever uses how much pays how much." This year's government work report proposed the "construction of a number of zero-carbon park demonstration bases." Therefore, one of the major changes in this year's national "five major and six minor" policies is the shift from an investment model that relied on grid backup to a model that uses direct green electricity closer to the product side. Therefore, the future park model will be: constructing photovoltaic, wind power, and energy storage systems within the park.

Through a direct green electricity connection model (dedicated line and dedicated supply), self-generation and self-consumption + intelligent microgrid supporting internal park transactions, integrating energy flow, information flow, and value flow. Zero-carbon comprehensive energy management: unified scheduling of water, electricity, gas, and heat within the park to form a closed loop of "zero-carbon energy use - zero-carbon production - zero-carbon emissions."

Zero-carbon parks will become a "standard configuration" for the future entry of high-end manufacturing and multinational companies.

V. Remote Rural Areas: Photovoltaic-Storage Microgrids, Off-Grid Self-Sufficiency

In some remote villages and outlying areas, the cost of laying transmission lines independently is extremely high and uneconomical.

In the future, these areas will adopt: small-scale photovoltaic + energy storage + microgrid systems, with local self-generation and consumption, off-grid operation, and connection to regional microgrids when necessary, achieving local complementarity and integrated electricity, water, and network systems (simultaneous solution for communication energy consumption).

Photovoltaic-storage microgrids can not only enhance energy independence but also significantly reduce overall power infrastructure investment.

VI. How to manage charging piles? — Vehicle-to-grid interaction

With the explosion of new energy vehicles, charging piles + photovoltaics + energy storage + vehicle-to-grid (V2G) interaction is becoming a trend.

Future charging stations will be: daytime photovoltaic power direct charging, nighttime vehicle reverse power to the grid for peak shaving and valley filling, and can also participate in the electricity spot market and ancillary service market arbitrage. New energy vehicles are mobile power banks, and the Internet of Vehicles scheduling becomes a new economic model.

Qiang believes that the second half of the photovoltaic industry is about comprehensive capabilities, not single capabilities.

In the future, the new energy field will no longer be a "lone wolf", but a comprehensive energy service provider platform that integrates cross-disciplines, cross-energy media, cross-industries, data-driven, and AI decision-making. The single-point power generation model has come to an end. Integration, intelligence, and comprehensiveness are the true way out for the new energy industry. Whoever can transform, whoever can transform faster, will become the next industry giant. Seize the first wave of dividends!