糟糕！还没等到430、531，光伏四大环节价格已掉头向下！

The price drop in the photovoltaic industry chain has begun, more than ten days before April 30th.

华夏能源网（公众号hxny3060）注意到，截至4月17日，硅片、电池片、组件已持续两周降价。此前在抢装潮中价格纹丝未动的硅料，也出现大范围降价。

Does this mean that the price increase cycle caused by the 430 and 531 rush to install has ended? Will industry prices hit new lows next?

Price drops across all four major sectors

This round of price increases in the photovoltaic industry was caused by rush installations at the end of February, due to the new regulations for distributed generation issued by the National Energy Administration and Document No. 136 on the comprehensive market access of new energy sources.

Initially, the component sector saw price increases first, which then spread upwards, leading to a surge in the prices of battery cells and silicon wafers. At one point, the spot price of distributed components from major manufacturers exceeded 0.8 yuan/W, and the price of BC components reached 0.85-0.9 yuan/W.

Now, as the installation deadline approaches, downstream demand has weakened, and the supply-demand relationship has reversed. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Silicon Industry Branch (hereinafter referred to as the "Silicon Industry Branch") stated that the demand stimulus for downstream products from the "531" rush installation has basically ended in mid-April. As the first deadline of the "430" and "531" rush installation approaches, the demand for terminal components has basically reached its peak, downstream stocking is nearing completion, and subsequent demand will gradually decrease.

With weakening demand, the entire industry chain has seen price cuts, and silicon wafer prices have fallen for two consecutive weeks.

According to data from the Silicon Industry Branch on April 10, the average transaction prices of N-type G12R, N-type G10L, and N-type G12 silicon wafers saw a slight decrease of 1.3%-2.52%.

On April 17, the Silicon Industry Branch released information showing that silicon wafer prices continued to fall. Among them, the price of N-type G12R silicon wafers fell the most, with an average transaction price of 1.43 yuan/piece, a week-on-week decrease of 5.92%; N-type G10L followed closely behind with an average transaction price of 1.22 yuan/piece and a week-on-week decrease of 3.17%; P-type G12 and N-type G12, with average transaction prices of 1.63 yuan/piece and 1.53 yuan/piece respectively, also fell by 1.81% and 1.29%.

The component sector has also seen continuous price declines.

According to Infolink Consulting data, the average transaction price of double-sided double-glass N-type TOPCon components was 0.745 yuan/W on April 9, a week-on-week decrease of 0.005 yuan/W. On April 17, it dropped to 0.735 yuan, another decrease of 0.01 yuan/W. The average transaction price of 182 and 210 TOPCon components used in distributed projects was 0.77 yuan/W on April 9, a week-on-week decrease of 0.01 yuan/W. On April 17, it decreased by another 0.02 yuan/W to 0.75 yuan/W.

Even battery cells, whose prices are the most resistant to fluctuations in the industry chain, have also seen continuous price declines.

Infolink Consulting data shows that on April 9, only the average transaction price of TOPCon 210R battery cells decreased by 0.01 yuan/W. By April 17, this had expanded to almost the entire battery cell series. The largest drop was in TOPCon 210R battery cells, with an average transaction price of 0.29 yuan/W, a decrease of 0.04 yuan, or 12.1%; the average transaction price of TOPCon 182/183.75 series battery cells was 0.3 yuan/W, a week-on-week decrease of 0.01 yuan/W; even the average transaction price of PERC 182/183 series decreased by 0.01 yuan/W.

The most helpless is the silicon material sector.

During this rush installation period, silicon material prices have remained unchanged. Now, affected by downstream price cuts, prices have fallen across the board except for granular silicon. Among them, the average transaction prices of N-type dense materials, N-type recycled materials, and P-type polysilicon materials decreased by 900 yuan/ton, 700 yuan/ton, and 500 yuan/ton respectively, with a decrease of 2.42%-1.47%.

The price drop across the four major sectors of the photovoltaic industry chain signals the end of the price surge that began in mid-to-late February.
 

How much further will prices fall?

Behind the downward trend of photovoltaic prices is the increasing inventory pressure on manufacturers in various sectors.

In the component sector, small distributors are starting to struggle with the decline in distributed component prices and are starting to sell their previously hoarded goods at lower prices.

In the battery cell sector, the high operating rate in April, coupled with the decline in demand before the policy deadline, has led to a gradual increase in inventory recently. With oversupply, prices of 183N and 210RN have fallen.

In the silicon wafer sector, manufacturers are strongly motivated to reduce inventory under the dual pressure of weakening end-market demand and falling battery prices, and price cuts are becoming more common.

Silicon materials have the most severe inventory problem. 华夏能源网 noted that even after the downstream rush installation period, industry inventory in March was still as high as 400,000 tons. Now, most silicon wafer manufacturers are still prioritizing the consumption of their own polysilicon inventory and delaying polysilicon procurement plans. With weak demand, the speed of polysilicon inventory reduction is expected to be slow in April.

Under the pressure of inventory reduction, Infolink predicts that the prices of N-type battery cells of various sizes will fall again before the end of April; the short-term outlook for silicon wafer prices is also pessimistic, with the price of 210RN silicon wafers possibly falling to 1.35-1.4 yuan per piece based on cost calculations, and 210N is expected to fall to 1.5 yuan per piece.

It is worth mentioning that in terms of production planning, except for silicon material companies that are generally operating at reduced capacity, other sectors do not seem to have made large-scale adjustments. For example, the overall operating rate of the silicon wafer sector in mid-April was 55%-58%, while it was 56%-58% in late March. This may be related to the continued execution of orders signed by downstream component manufacturers earlier. The unchanged operating rate has further increased the inventory pressure on various sectors of the industry chain, making the short-term downward price trend more stable.

However, in the long term, the prices in the photovoltaic industry chain may not have much room to fall.

Infolink recently stated that current component inventories are at a healthy level. Considering the status of domestic concentrated projects and overseas demand, it is difficult for component prices to rise sharply or collapse in the second half of the year. Battery cells, on the other hand, are expected to recover after production capacity decreases and supply-demand imbalance eases. The Silicon Industry Branch also believes that the room for decline in silicon wafer prices will not be large under the condition of reduced supply and low inventory.

In addition, a new round of industry self-discipline has quietly begun, which may help stabilize prices.

China Energy Network noted that in early April, industry news indicated a new round of production restrictions and price controls would begin. Multiple photovoltaic companies have already participated in self-discipline meetings, reporting on inventory and production capacity. The next step is to set self-discipline quotas to ensure that photovoltaic product prices do not experience a cliff-like drop after the "531" incident. In the second half of the year, production will continue to be based on sales.

Other sources say that component manufacturers are also trying to negotiate with end-users on the execution price of orders in June and July, using methods such as mixing early order shipments or offering partial discounts to maintain the signed price of approximately RMB 0.63-0.68/W, controlling price declines.

Conclusion

From last year to the present, the photovoltaic industry has been trapped in a cycle of "self-discipline - market improvement - worsening supply and demand - a new round of self-discipline." The root cause is the persistent failure to effectively clear excess capacity.

Although photovoltaic companies were able to repair their performance in the first quarter during this round of price increases, it remains questionable how much profit they actually made. Short-term price increases may allow some lagging capacity on the verge of "clearing" to survive, thus increasing the difficulty and prolonging the time of the "industry reshuffle" in the photovoltaic industry.

After a year and a half of industry "reshuffling," companies are facing increasing pressure. If this "reshuffling" continues for too long, it may severely damage the vitality of the industry's high-quality production capacity.

According to statistics, as of the third quarter of last year, the total amount of accounts payable and bills payable of only seven leading photovoltaic companies reached 444.4 billion yuan. Industry losses have shifted from losses in "cash flow" to losses in "principal" and "accounts receivable".

Amidst numerous crises, how to accelerate the clearing of lagging production capacity in the industry and prevent high-quality production capacity from being consumed in a slow and painful process is a problem that all parties must address.