Thirty Years of BIPV Challenges: From Technological Pioneer to Market Outcast, When Will Building-Integrated Photovoltaics Break Through?

I. The Cycle of Technological Sins: From the "Father of Photovoltaic Curtain Walls" to a Victim of Capital Bubbles

In 1986, when Sandia National Laboratories first proposed the concept of BIPV, photovoltaic components were defined as "building materials that generate electricity." In 2004, Wuxi Suntech built China's first photovoltaic curtain wall project—the Suntech Power R&D Center, using polycrystalline silicon components with a cost as high as 80 yuan/watt. This ushered in the first wave of BIPV, but the seeds of technological problems were already sown:

Fluctuating Technological Approaches Yingli Group's "Diangu International Hotel" built in 2009 used amorphous silicon thin-film components for the building's curved surfaces, but the 6% conversion efficiency resulted in an annual degradation rate of 3%, and the project's IRR over its entire lifecycle was only 2.1%. Hanergy's Dragon Scale Building BIPV, launched in 2017, achieved a 30-degree bend with copper indium gallium selenide thin-film components, but the unit Price of 28 yuan/watt was four times that of crystalline silicon components, and the photoelectric conversion efficiency was only 13%.

Cost Death Spiral Compared to the Price of ground-based power station components at the same time, in 2008, the Price of crystalline silicon components was 28 yuan/watt, while the cost of BIPV systems was as high as 120 yuan/watt; in 2024, the Price of ordinary components fell below 0.8 yuan/watt, but BIPV systems still remained at 3.2-5.6 yuan/watt. This resulted in a payback period of 20-25 years for BIPV projects, more than four times that of ground-based power stations.

II. The Fracture Zone of Industrial Synergy: The "Mutual Non-Convergence" of Construction and Photovoltaics

The core problem behind the current BIPV penetration rate of less than 0.3% lies in the failure of synergy between the two major industrial systems:

Disjointed Design Standards The "Technical Specifications for the Application of Photovoltaic Systems in Civil Buildings" implemented by the construction industry requires components to have a fire resistance limit of ≥1.5 hours, while the photovoltaic industry standard only requires 0.5 hours. Calculations by a certain design institute show that BIPV components that meet building codes increase costs by 42% and require sacrificing 8% of power generation efficiency.

Profit Distribution Black Hole Under the traditional EPC model, architectural design institutes receive 3%-5% of the total engineering cost, while BIPV systems encroach on the curtain wall engineering share. A large public building project shows that using BIPV curtain walls reduced the architectural design institute's income by 12 million yuan, but required an additional 2 million yuan for structural safety assessment fees.

Capacity Mismatch Dilemma In 2024, photovoltaic component production capacity exceeded 1000GW, but the production capacity of dedicated BIPV components was only 2.3GW. Longi's BIPV production line utilization rate has been below 30% for a long time, while the cost of transforming Yamatone's colored photovoltaic component production line accounts for 38% of the selling Price.

III. Breakthrough in Progress: Technological Revolution and Model Reconstruction in 2025-2030

1. Existing Markets Open New Tracks

Data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development shows that the total roof area of existing buildings in China exceeds 80 billion square meters, 30% of which are suitable for renovation. The Ordos Airport Logistics Park transformed 47,000 square meters of warehouse roofs into a BIPV system, with a power generation of 168 kWh/㎡/year per unit area, 27% higher than traditional color steel tile roofs. This "replacement construction" model is being replicated in energy-intensive industries such as steel and chemicals.

2. Financial Instruments Activate Asset Liquidity

In 2024, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange launched the first BIPV-REITs, securitizing the BIPV system of a super-high-rise office building. Project calculations show that the discounted cash flow rate over a 25-year operating period decreased from 8% to 5.3%, and the IRR increased to 7.2%. After the reform of the green certificate trading mechanism, BIPV projects can obtain an additional green premium of 0.15-0.3 yuan/degree.

IV. 2028 Time Window: The Triple Certainty of BIPV Industry Rise

Policy Certainty The new version of the "General Specifications for Building Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Utilization" requires that from 2026 onwards, the BIPV coverage rate for newly built public buildings will be no less than 30%, and for renovation projects, no less than 15%.

Technological Certainty The mass production efficiency of N-type TOPCon double-glass components has reached 26.7%, the life cycle degradation rate has dropped to 0.3%/year, and it has passed the 1.8-hour fire test. The building-integrated photovoltaic design software PVsyst 9.0 seamlessly integrates with the BIM system, shortening the design cycle by 60%.

Economic Certainty When the Price of BIPV components drops to 2.3 yuan/watt and the incremental cost of construction is controlled at 400 yuan/㎡, the IRR of BIPV projects will exceed the critical point of 8%. Calculations by CITIC Securities show that this turning point will appear in 2028.

Conclusion: Does BIPV Need to Wait for the Recovery of the Housing Construction Market?

Against the backdrop of a 12% decline in the newly started area of buildings, BIPV is opening up an independent track: steel structure factory renovations, photovoltaic canopies for transportation hubs, agricultural photovoltaic greenhouses, and other non-housing construction scenarios have contributed 63% of the increase in installed capacity. When technology penetrates the cost threshold, financial instruments open up asset circulation, and the existing market releases renovation demand, this industry, which has been dormant for 30 years, will finally break through and be reborn in the dual waves of architectural revolution and energy revolution.