Major News! Multiple Favorable Policies! Is the Turning Point for the Photovoltaic Industry Approaching? Will Spring Bring Flowers?

2024, the Darkest Hour for the Photovoltaic Industry

Starting from the beginning of last year, bloodthirsty capital has attempted to eliminate others through low prices. Unexpectedly, this dragged the entire industry into a quagmire. Intense competition in the upstream market has led to a sharp drop in component prices from around 1.8 yuan/W in 2023 to below 0.6 yuan/W, squeezing profits to the limit; Nationwide, more than 450 regions have been classified as red alert zones due to insufficient capacity and grid connection difficulties. More than 50 regions across the country have suspended registration directly, resulting in limited power absorption capacity and a sharp increase in the uncertainty of investment returns; A wave of sell-offs of photovoltaic power stations by state-owned and central enterprises has emerged, with large-scale power curtailment in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and the Northwest region. Upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain are facing tremendous survival pressures, with many enterprises shutting down, halting production, and even directly going bankrupt...
 

At the same time, at the beginning of this year, the state successively issued "dual policies"—the "Management Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation" and the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of New Energy and Accelerating the Construction of a New Energy System" (Document No. 136). The photovoltaic industry has completely said goodbye to full grid-connected power generation. After June 1, all incremental wind power and photovoltaic power must enter the electricity market to participate in trading at a certain percentage, and there are various variables; it is impossible to calculate the "rate of return." For a time, the industry was panicked and uneasy. Photovoltaic investors began to question: Can we still invest? How to invest? Is the return guaranteed?

Industry confidence has plummeted, and the entire market seems to be trapped in an endless slump.(If you think it's good, please give it a follow and a like! Share it with your friends who need it. Please point out any mistakes in the comments section.)

1. Green Certificate Market Opens Up, New Profit Channel for Photovoltaics

On March 18, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce, and the National Data Administration jointly issued the "Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of the Green Electricity Certificate Market for Renewable Energy," further clarifying the green certificate trading mechanism and promoting the diversification of photovoltaic project returns. The policy clearly mentions that by 2030, the proportion of green electricity consumption by high energy-consuming enterprises shall not be lower than the average level of the national renewable energy power consumption responsibility quota; the proportion of green electricity consumption by national hub-level data centers will continue to increase from 80%; government, state-owned enterprises, and public institutions will take the lead in implementation to set an example.

Policy Favorable Analysis:

1) Expansion of the Green Certificate Trading Market, New Revenue Source for Photovoltaic Enterprises
 

This policy clearly states that it will improve the green certificate trading market and promote the coordinated development of the green certificate market, the carbon market, and the green electricity trading market. This means that photovoltaic enterprises can obtain additional income through green certificate trading in addition to electricity price revenue, improving project profitability.

2) Mandatory Requirements for Green Certificates May Increase, Promoting Photovoltaic Power Consumption
 

In the future, with the advancement of carbon neutrality goals, the government may further increase the green certificate quota ratio, encouraging enterprises to increase green certificate purchases, indirectly increasing the market demand for photovoltaic power.

3) Cross-Provincial Circulation of Green Certificates, Photovoltaics and Energy Storage Become Enterprises' "Essential Needs"
 

Article 4 of the policy clearly states: "Promote the reasonable circulation of green certificates nationwide; all regions shall not restrict green certificate trading in any way." Key changes: National green certificate trading; enterprises can purchase green certificates across regions, but the Price is market-determined; if electricity-consuming enterprises want to save money, the best way is to invest in photovoltaics and wind power themselves to reduce long-term electricity costs; the importance of energy storage is increasing, green electricity trading requires a more stable supply, and energy storage has become a necessary supporting facility for high energy-consuming enterprises.

Recently, I exchanged views with leaders from the "Big Five, Small Six, and Two Networks." Traditional photovoltaics have been withdrawn by them and left to local energy and state-owned enterprises. However, they are still capable of large-scale energy-intensive enterprises with large bases, direct supply of green electricity, and direct user signing (steel, cement, nonferrous metals, chemicals—large electricity users).

 

2. "Thousands of Households Basking in Sunlight Action"—New Hope for Breaking the Stalemate

Just yesterday, the National Energy Administration issued a major policy—the "Thousands of Households Basking in Sunlight Action," sounding the horn for the development of rural distributed photovoltaics. This policy is not only a summary of the previous pilot projects for the entire county's promotion but also an upgrade for the future development of rural photovoltaics. (The specific list will be shared with you in the second article.)

1) Expanded Scale, Huge Market Space  The "Thousands of Households Basking in Sunlight Action" clearly states that it is necessary to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of various investors, innovate development models, and promote the construction of photovoltaic projects in rural areas. This means that the future photovoltaic market will not only be limited to the roofs of urban and commercial buildings but will also penetrate deep into rural areas, forming a huge incremental market space.

2) Solving the Problem of Power Absorption, Optimizing Grid Access  The policy specifically emphasizes the need to coordinate and balance the development needs of new energy, scientifically layout photovoltaic projects according to the grid's carrying capacity, and require grid enterprises to optimize grid connection processes and provide green channels to achieve "one-stop" processing. This is undoubtedly a shot in the arm for the previously troublesome "difficulty in power absorption and grid connection" problems. In addition, the State Grid and Southern Grid have reinvested more than 825 billion yuan to upgrade the main grid and transform the distribution network, providing strong support for the insufficient grid connection capacity in rural areas.
 

3) Innovative Investment Return Mechanism, More Flexible Return Models In terms of the return mechanism, the policy requires respecting market principles, protecting the legitimate rights and interests of farmers and investors, and not designating operators or engaging in monopolistic development. This means that the future rural photovoltaic market will form a fairer, more transparent, and more sustainable return model, reducing investment risks.

4) Construction of Rural Energy Service System, Enhanced Maintenance and Support In the past, the maintenance of distributed photovoltaic projects was a prominent issue. This policy encourages the use of professional forces from grid companies and new energy companies to establish multi-level energy service stations in villages and towns to provide professional maintenance and support to ensure the long-term stable operation of the photovoltaic system.

5) Long-Term Policy Stability, Enhanced Development Confidence The National Energy Administration requires energy authorities in various provinces to strengthen overall planning and submit summary reports by the end of January 2026. This means that the "Thousands of Households Basking in Sunlight Action" is not a short-term stimulus policy but part of the country's long-term strategic planning, which is conducive to the sustainable development of the market.

 

3. Guangdong Energy Bureau Releases Draft for Soliciting Opinions on the Management Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation

1) Self-Generation and Self-Consumption Ratio Not Yet Clarified

Considering that our province has good power absorption conditions, at present, our province does not have mandatory requirements for the proportion of annual self-generated and self-consumed electricity to the total electricity generation for general industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power generation projects. Subsequent adjustments will be made as needed. Project investors should make full use of existing power supply lines and reasonably determine the total capacity of the project.

2) Classification Management of Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects Using Non-Building Constructions

For photovoltaic power generation projects that utilize existing rural roads, public parking lots, agricultural planting and breeding facilities, and other qualified structures and their ancillary areas, if the project adopts a fully self-generated and self-used or self-generated and self-used surplus power grid-connected mode, it is classified as a general industrial and commercial or large-scale industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power generation project and managed according to the "Measures"; if the project adopts a full grid-connected mode or requires the construction or transformation of power supply lines, it is classified as a centralized photovoltaic power plant.

4. The turning point is approaching, spring is in the air?

In 2024, the photovoltaic market experienced its darkest hour, but with frequent positive policy winds, the spring of the photovoltaic industry may not be far off. From the "Thousands of Households Basking in Sunlight Action" to the reform of the green certificate market, the country is continuously releasing positive signals, promoting the industry's return to a healthy development track. The launch of the rural distributed photovoltaic market means that the photovoltaic market will shift from the previous "centralized + industrial and commercial" to "diversified + inclusive," opening up new incremental markets for the industry. The improvement of the green certificate market provides a new profit model for photovoltaic investment, enhancing market confidence.
 

Of course, the industry's recovery will not happen overnight. The implementation of policies, the improvement of market mechanisms, and the improvement of absorption capacity still require time. But it is certain that the adjustment period of the photovoltaic industry is coming to an end, and new growth points are brewing.

For photovoltaic people, this is not only the darkness before dawn, but also a chance for rebirth. In the future, the spring of the photovoltaic industry may really be coming!