Photovoltaic Revolution Begins: BC Leads the Way, Component Prices Rise!

In the wave of global energy transformation, the photovoltaic industry, as a core force, is undergoing unprecedented changes and challenges. The emergence of BC technology, the fluctuation of component prices, and the industry's difficult journey and potential turning point in the cold winter have created a complex and volatile landscape for the photovoltaic industry. Behind these phenomena, policy guidance acts as a conductor, leading the direction of industrial development; technological iteration acts as an engine, driving industrial upgrading; and market supply and demand act like a balance, affecting the balance of the industry. A deep analysis of these key factors is crucial for understanding the future direction of the photovoltaic industry and grasping development opportunities.

BC Technology

The "Secret Weapon" in the Rush to Install 

Since the fourth quarter of last year, the photovoltaic industry has seen a surge in BC (Back Contact) technology.Longi Green Energy took the lead in deploying and firmly betting on the BC technology route, and many companies followed suit. For a time, BC technology became the focus of the industry's technology track. Bidding data shows its rapid development momentum. In December 2024, the total scale of photovoltaic component bidding was 11.4GW, with BC components accounting for 10%; entering 2025, the January component bidding scale was 9.2GW, with BC components rising to 13%.

According to industry institutions, as of November 2024, the existing production capacity of photovoltaic BC cells is approximately 55GW.Longi Green EnergyClearly stated that approximately 70GW of HPBC production capacity will be built by the end of 2025, and announced that it will cooperate withJinYang New EnergyTo establish a joint venture to produce HBC photovoltaic cells, and withEnvision EnergySigned a strategic cooperation agreement for 16GW HPBC wafers.AIXUEThe BC production capacity that has been put into production includes 10GW in Zhuhai, and 15GW in Yiwu is also being put into production successively. The Jinan base is also under construction, and it is expected that component production will begin at the end of this year, battery production in the first half of next year, and the planned shipment volume for next year will be over 20GW.

In the first two months of 2025, the bidding volume of N-type components reached 21.76GW, accounting for 78.3%. Among them, BC components, as an important branch of N-type technology, have continuously increased in attention.The rapid growth of this data directly reflects the upward trend of market attention to BC components.

In the "battlefield" of the distributed photovoltaic market, BC components are expected to play a key role in the current "rush to install" thanks to their unique advantages. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issuedThe "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Operation of Incremental Marketized Grid-Connected Projects in the New Energy Field" clearly stipulates that starting June 1, 2025, newly put into operation new energy projects must obtain grid-connected electricity prices through participation in the electricity market.Under this policy "tightening spell," distributed photovoltaic projects are accelerating construction to lock in existing income, and the "rush to install" is surging.

BC components have a significant power gain advantage. Taking Longi Hi-MO X10 components as an example, their mass production efficiency is as high as 24.8%, and the power of the same model is 40W higher than that of mainstream photovoltaic components on the market. In distributed projects with limited roof area, this advantage is a "sharp weapon." With the same area, using Longi BC components has more than 6% higher installed capacity than ordinary components, meaning that higher installed capacity can be achieved in a limited space, harvesting more income.

In shaded environments, BC components truly "shine."By integrating miniature bypass diodes in the PN junction of each cell, "shade point isolation" is achieved, losing only the power of the shaded area, while the rest of the cells can still maintain maximum output.Old factories, low-rise buildings, and other roofs with high shading rates and complex structures, which were previously considered low-quality resources, are now "reborn" with the help of BC components, and power generation income is effectively guaranteed. Moreover, under weak light conditions in the morning and evening, the weak light response advantage of BC components is fully demonstrated, allowing for more power generation. In regions such as Shandong, the electricity Price in the morning and evening is sometimes 3.8 times that of the midday period. After the BC components are combined with the energy storage system to optimize the output curve, a photovoltaic version of "time arbitrage" can be realized, significantly improving the overall return on investment of the project.

Furthermore, BC components have also emerged in bidding by some large state-owned enterprises.China Huadian CorporationThe total bidding scale is 15GW, of which Section 3 is 1GW of BC components.Datang Group In the photovoltaic component framework procurement project from 2025 to 2026, the procurement scale of BC components reached 1GW, with an average Price of 0.839 yuan/watt, and a quotation range of 0.73 yuan/watt to 1.127 yuan/watt. This shows that BC components are beginning to be recognized in large-scale projects, further expanding their application scenarios. 

Component Price Increase

 Imbalance and Reset of Supply and Demand  

Recently, photovoltaic component Prices have been like a roller coaster, rising all the way. From the market demand side, the policy time node plays a key "trigger" role. Since June 1, 2025, newly put into operation new energy projects will implement market-based transaction electricity prices. Before that, grid-connected projects can still enjoy the guaranteed grid-connected electricity Price policy. This policy difference has led developers to concentrate on launching distributed photovoltaic projects in the short term to lock in income, and market demand has shown explosive growth.

On March 17, the Prices of distributed TOPCon components of three Models (182, 210, and 210R) increased by 0.009 yuan/watt, 0.004 yuan/watt, and 0.004 yuan/watt, respectively. The average Price reached 0.757 yuan/watt, 0.767 yuan/watt, and 0.767 yuan/watt, setting a new high recently. In just over half a month, the Price of components increased by more than 6 cents/watt.

Not only has the domestic distributed market ushered in a temporary small peak in installation, but overseas market demand is also gradually recovering.The Price of components in Europe has rebounded, and distributors and installers are replenishing their stocks, further exacerbating the "thirst" for photovoltaic components.

The supply side presents a different picture.In 2024, the capacity utilization rate of silicon materials and wafers dropped to 64.25%. In the first quarter of 2025, polysilicon output is expected to decrease by another 5%.Industry self-discipline production restriction measures, like an "invisible hand," accelerated the process of supply and demand balance, and the contraction of the supply side provided strong support for the rise in component Prices. Upstream raw material companies, which have been operating at low Prices for a long time, are deeply mired in losses, with cost increases and Price increase pressures shadowing each other. This pressure is ultimately transmitted through component Price increases. Domestic companies are gradually exerting self-discipline through controlling the pace of capacity release, jointly promoting Price increases.

Relevant agency reports show that,In March, wafer factory production slightly increased to the 50-51GW range. The production strategy of leading specialized manufacturers is relatively cautious, but recent feedback indicates that some Tier 1 specialized manufacturers have chosen to strategically loosen restrictions, continuing their previous high-production choices.On the demand side, there is strong demand for battery wafers, stimulated by a small peak in rush installations. However, the demand structure has changed, with incremental demand concentrated in the 210RN specification, thus leading to a strong upward momentum in the Price of 210RN wafers recently. This week, the Price of 182-210mm TOPCon modules for centralized and distributed projects in China has rebounded strongly. The average Price for centralized projects has returned to 0.69 yuan/W, and the average Price for distributed projects has risen to 0.71 yuan/W. The quotation range for double-sided M10-TOPCon modules from leading manufacturers is between 0.66-0.76 yuan/W; the quotation range for double-sided G12-HJT modules from mainstream manufacturers is concentrated in the 0.69-0.78 yuan/W range.

From a technical perspective, in the wave of industry technology iteration, high-efficiency components such as TOPCon and HJT are continuously increasing their market share.Taking the bidding by Datang Group as an example, the average Price of these high-efficiency components reached 0.696 - 0.839 yuan/watt. The increase in the penetration rate of N-type technology has become an important driving force for the structural rise in component Prices. According to data from TrendForce, in the first two months of 2025, the bidding volume of N-type components reached 21.76GW, accounting for 78.3%. In large-scale component centralized bidding, China National Petroleum Corporation's 7GW component centralized bidding was all N-type, and in the Three Gorges Corporation's 9GW photovoltaic component bidding, about 8.5GW clearly stated the bidding for N-type components  .With the increase in the market share of N-type components, their Price also affects the overall component Price, driving the structural increase in component Prices.

Photovoltaic winter

 Hope in the darkness 

Looking back at 2024, the photovoltaic industry experienced an unprecedented "winter."The shadow of overcapacity shrouded the entire industry, and Prices across the industrial chain "collapsed."According to the latest data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the Prices of photovoltaic industry chains in 2024 fell significantly, with polysilicon Prices falling by more than 35%, wafer Prices falling by more than 45%, and battery and component Prices falling by more than 25%. Many companies in the industry are deeply mired in losses, with 39 of the 121 listed photovoltaic companies reporting net losses. Even industry leaders like Longi Green Energy reported losses exceeding 8 billion yuan in a year. Under the pressure of overcapacity, enterprises are trapped in a vicious cycle of "the more they produce, the more they lose," and are forced to participate in market competition at Prices below cash costs.

At the market level, traditional market growth is weak.The domestic new installed capacity target plummeted from 277.57GW in 2024 to 215-255GW in 2025 (China Photovoltaic Industry Association forecast). Compared with 2024, the decrease is as high as 22.54%.The European and American markets are also facing difficulties. The US has tightened its tariff policies, and Europe has shifted back to coal-fired power due to insufficient grid absorption capacity. The growth engines of traditional demand markets have "stalled."Although distributed photovoltaics have accumulated a certain scale of installed capacity, policy adjustments, such as the cancellation of full-scale grid connection for industrial and commercial projects and the problem of power absorption, have led to the stagnation of household and industrial and commercial project development.

However, Entering 2025, some positive signals, like stars, have illuminated the path forward for the photovoltaic industry.The National Energy Administration issued the "Management Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation" on January 23, 2025, directly addressing the industry's pain points.In terms of safeguarding user rights, it strictly prohibits developers from registering projects in the name of farmers, preventing financial risks; in solving the problem of power absorption, it requires the power grid to announce the load-bearing capacity of the distribution network on a quarterly basis, guiding scientific layout; at the same time, it supports new grid-connected models such as microgrids and virtual power plants, injecting new vitality into the development of distributed photovoltaics.

By the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power generation reached 370 million kilowatts, 121 times that at the end of 2013, accounting for 42% of all photovoltaic power generation installed capacity and 11% of the country's total power generation installed capacity. In terms of power generation,In 2024, distributed photovoltaic power generation was 346.2 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 41% of photovoltaic power generation.The promulgation of the "Management Measures" will help the healthy development of this important field, and it is expected to maintain the resilience of new installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics in 2025.

Good news has also come from the technical field. N-type batteries have risen strongly, with TOPCon technology accounting for 70% of the market share, and is expected to exceed 80% in 2025, with the cost of electricity falling below 0.4 yuan/kilowatt-hour. Dongwu Securities pointed out that in the first half of 2024, the domestic component collection bidding capacity was about 131.4GW, of which the bidding volume of N-type components reached 93.6GW, accounting for 71.2%, a year-on-year increase of 24.7%.

By the end of 2024, the put-into-production capacity of N-type TOPCon had reached 833GW, with a market share of 74%. From 2025 to 2029, global photovoltaic battery wafer production capacity will reach 1208GW, 1307GW, 1292GW, 1320GW, and 1311GW respectively, of which N-type TOPCon production capacity will be 988GW, 1053GW, 1053GW, 1053GW, and 1053GW respectively, accounting for 93.31%, 94.48%, 97.26%, 97.47%, and 98.06% respectively, maintaining a stable position in the mainstream market. Composite technologies such as TBC (TOPCon + BC) and HBC (HJT + BC) have also begun mass production, with battery efficiency exceeding 28%.

In the "2024 China's Highest Efficiency Solar Cells" list announced at the 19th China Renewable Energy Conference in 2024, there are the world record of 27.30% monocrystalline silicon solar cell (HBC) efficiency and the record of 27.0% all-back contact solar cell (TBC) efficiency`nbsp_tagIn terms of energy storage technology, grid-type energy storage technology has been included in the national action plan, and companies such as Huawei and Sungrow Power Supply have launched relevant solutions, accelerating the arrival of the era of grid parity for photovoltaics + energy storage.

From a market expansion perspective, emerging markets have become a "new blue ocean" for the photovoltaic industry.Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America are booming, and it is estimated that by 2025, the proportion of China's photovoltaic product exports to these regions will exceed 40%.。Offshore photovoltaicsare also accelerating their layout. Jiangsu, Shanghai, and other places have planned over 30GW of offshore photovoltaic projects, breaking through the limitations of land resources. In addition,the cross-border integration of photovoltaics with agriculture, transportation, and fisheries is constantly deepening, opening up a hundreds of billions of yuan incremental space for the industry.

The photovoltaic industry has shown a complex and diverse situation in the development of BC technology, fluctuations in component prices, and the difficulties of a cold winter.BC technology is expected to stand out in the photovoltaic rush installation wave with its own advantages and get a share of the pie; the increase in component Price is the result of the interplay of multiple factors such as supply and demand and cost; while the photovoltaic cold winter is freezing cold, the warmth brought by policies, technology, and new market trends has quietly surged.The industry is at a critical juncture of breaking through and being reborn, the future is full of challenges, but also full of opportunities.

Source: Terawatt Times