Thirty Years of BIPV Challenges: From Technological Pioneer to Market Outcast, When Will Building-Integrated Photovoltaics Break Through?

I. The Cycle of Technological Sins: From the "Father of Photovoltaic Curtain Walls" to a Victim of Capital Bubbles

In 1986, when the Sandia National Laboratories first proposed the concept of BIPV, photovoltaic modules were defined as "building materials that generate electricity." In 2004, Wuxi Suntech built China's first photovoltaic curtain wall project—the Suntech Power R&D Center, using polycrystalline silicon components with a cost as high as 80 yuan/watt. This ushered in the first wave of BIPV, but technological flaws were already lurking:

Fluctuating Technological ApproachesYingli Group's "Electric Valley International Hotel" built in 2009 used amorphous silicon thin-film components for the building's curved shape, but its 6% conversion efficiency led to an annual degradation rate of 3%, resulting in a project IRR of only 2.1% over its lifetime. Hanergy's Dragon Scale Building BIPV launched in 2017 achieved a 30-degree bend with copper indium gallium selenide thin-film components, but its unit Price of 28 yuan/watt was four times that of crystalline silicon components, and its photoelectric conversion efficiency was only 13%.

Cost Death SpiralCompared to the Price of ground-based power station components at the same time, in 2008, the Price of crystalline silicon components was 28 yuan/watt, while the BIPV system cost was as high as 120 yuan/watt; in 2024, ordinary components fell below 0.8 yuan/watt, but the BIPV system still remained at 3.2-5.6 yuan/watt. This resulted in a payback period of 20-25 years for BIPV projects, more than four times that of ground-based power stations.

II. The Fracture Zone of Industrial Synergy: The "Two-Way Failure to Converge" Between Construction and Photovoltaics

The core problem behind the current BIPV penetration rate of less than 0.3% lies in the failure of synergy between the two major industrial systems:

Disjointed Design StandardsThe "Technical Specifications for the Application of Photovoltaic Systems in Civil Buildings" implemented by the construction industry requires a fire resistance limit of ≥1.5 hours for components, while the photovoltaic industry standard only requires 0.5 hours. According to calculations by a certain design institute, BIPV components meeting the building codes increase costs by 42% and require sacrificing 8% of power generation efficiency.

Profit Distribution Black HoleUnder the traditional EPC model, architectural design institutes receive 3%-5% of the total engineering Price, while BIPV systems encroach on curtain wall projects. A major public building project shows that using BIPV curtain walls reduced the design institute's income by 12 million yuan but required an additional 2 million yuan for structural safety assessments.

Production Capacity Mismatch DilemmaIn 2024, the photovoltaic component production capacity exceeded 1000GW, but the specialized BIPV component production capacity was only 2.3GW. The equipment utilization rate of Longi's BIPV production line has been below 30% for a long time, while the transformation cost of Yamatone's colored photovoltaic component production line accounts for 38% of the sales Price.

III. Breaking the Situation: Technological Revolution and Model Reconstruction in 2025-2030

1. Opening New Tracks in the Existing Market

Data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development shows that the total roof area of existing buildings in China exceeds 80 billion square meters, 30% of which is suitable for renovation. The Ordos Airport Logistics Park transformed 47,000 square meters of warehouse roofs into BIPV systems, with a power generation of 168 kWh/㎡/year per unit area, 27% higher than traditional color steel tile roofs. This "replacement construction" model is being replicated in energy-intensive industries such as steel and chemicals.

2. Financial Instruments Activate Asset Liquidity

In 2024, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange launched the first BIPV-REITs, securitizing the BIPV system of a super-high-rise office building. Project calculations show that the discounted cash flow rate over a 25-year operating period has dropped from 8% to 5.3%, and the IRR has increased to 7.2%. After the reform of the green certificate trading mechanism, BIPV projects can obtain an additional green premium of 0.15-0.3 yuan/degree.

IV. 2028 Time Window: The Triple Certainty of BIPV Industry Rise

Policy CertaintyThe new version of "General Specifications for Building Energy Conservation and Renewable Energy Utilization" requires that from 2026 onwards, the BIPV coverage rate for new public buildings will be no less than 30%, and for renovation projects, no less than 15%.

Technological CertaintyThe mass production efficiency of N-type TOPCon double-glass components has reached 26.7%, the life cycle degradation rate has dropped to 0.3%/year, and it has passed the 1.8-hour fire test. The building-integrated photovoltaic design software PVsyst 9.0 achieves seamless docking with the BIM system, shortening the design cycle by 60%.

Economic CertaintyWhen the Price of BIPV components falls to 2.3 yuan/watt and the incremental cost of construction is controlled at 400 yuan/㎡, the IRR of BIPV projects will exceed the critical point of 8%. According to calculations by Citic Construction Investment, this turning point will appear in 2028.

Conclusion: Does BIPV Need to Wait for the Recovery of the Housing Construction Market?

Against the backdrop of a 12% decline in the newly started area of buildings, BIPV is opening up independent tracks: steel structure factory renovations, photovoltaic canopies for transportation hubs, and agricultural photovoltaic greenhouses, among other non-housing construction scenarios, have contributed 63% of the increase in installed capacity. When technology penetrates the cost threshold, financial instruments open up asset circulation, and the existing market releases renewal demand, this industry, which has been dormant for 30 years, will finally break through and be reborn in the dual waves of building revolution and energy revolution.