Profits have been slashed by at least 17.4 billion! Even the four major players in the photovoltaic industry can’t withstand it—so who still claims that abolishing export tax rebates has little impact?

Last week, a notice from the Ministry of Finance canceling export tax rebates set off a firestorm in the photovoltaic industry!

 

Industry associations stated that abolishing export tax rebates would help bring overseas market prices back to a more rational level, curb the rapid decline in export prices, and reduce the likelihood of trade disputes. Leading photovoltaic companies made it clear they had long been prepared, noting that “the impact will be limited.” Meanwhile, export‑oriented firms have rescinded their holiday notices and are ramping up production to seize the final window for claiming tax rebates.

 

In conjunction with the present situation The “silicon material procurement and storage” policy has hit a snag, silver prices have surged, module costs have soared, and the export tax rebate policy… The ebb tide not only poses a direct challenge to companies’ cost structures and profitability, but also represents a thorough reshaping of the industry’s growth logic and development trajectory.

 

Ten years of export tax rebates

Over 240 billion yuan has been channeled back into the photovoltaic industry.

 

Regarding export tax rebates for photovoltaic products, China Daily published a report on September 30, 2013:

 

 

In 2013, photovoltaic products for the first time benefited from a higher export tax rebate rate. It aims to mitigate the impact of the U.S. and European “double‑countervailing” investigations, thereby securing survival space for enterprises. — At that time, the industry was mired in a “winter,” and policy support proved to be a timely lifeline.

 

In 2018, the Ministry of Finance announced that, effective May 1, light… The 17% VAT rate previously applicable to the manufacture of value-added products has been reduced to 16%.

 

In 2019, the Ministry of Finance issued a document, For items subject to a 16% tax rate effective April 1, the rate is adjusted to 13%.

 

In 2024, the Ministry of Finance once again adjusted tariffs on photovoltaic products. Effective December 1, the export tax rebate rate of 13% will be reduced to 9%.

 

April 2026, This export tax rebate policy, which has been in place for more than a decade, is set to come to an end.

 

 

From 2016 to 2025, Over the past decade, China’s photovoltaic product exports have totaled nearly US$270 billion. Based on the export tax rebate rates in effect at the time, the cumulative export tax rebates exceeded US$35 billion, equivalent to more than RMB 240 billion today.

 

Thanks to this policy, China’s photovoltaic industry has repeatedly navigated industry cycles, not only becoming a flagship of the “new three major exports” but also emerging as the global leader in the sector.

 

Cancel export tax rebates

The arrow is on the string; there’s no choice but to shoot.

 

The abolition of export tax rebates is by no means an isolated fiscal decision; rather, it represents an inevitable response to the deep-seated structural contradictions facing the industry.

 

The primary reason is, first and foremost, addressing the severe overcapacity. ‌ — China’s photovoltaic module production capacity now accounts for more than 80% of the global total. According to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, since 2024, domestic PV products have been caught in a vicious cycle of “rising volumes but falling prices” in overseas markets. “Some companies, in the course of exporting, not only engage in price-cutting competition but also…” Convert the export tax rebate amount into foreign‑trade pricing leverage. “As a result, fiscal funds originally intended to offset the domestic value-added tax burden are ceded to overseas purchasers during the bargaining process.” This practice effectively transforms the tax rebate policy into a subsidy for overseas end‑users, leading to a loss of profits for domestic enterprises and significantly increasing the risk of trade disputes such as anti‑subsidy and anti‑dumping investigations.

 

Secondly, it serves as a catalyst for technological upgrading and a leap in industrial value. ‌ Policymakers are keenly aware that the path of low‑price expansion is no longer sustainable. With the “price buffer” provided by export tax rebates now gone, companies must rely on technological innovation to enhance the value added of their products in order to absorb rising cost pressures. As the secretary of the board at Hengdian Dongci put it, the elimination of export tax rebates… Encourage enterprises to mitigate cost pressures through technological innovation and by enhancing the value-added content of their products, thereby steering industrial structure toward a healthier, more sustainable trajectory. ”。

 

 

In addition, Alleviating fiscal burdens and managing international trade frictions are also key considerations. In the first 11 months of 2025, China’s total export tax rebates have already reached RMB 1.9 trillion, making it imperative to optimize the allocation of fiscal resources. Meanwhile, abolishing these rebates would help bring overseas market prices back to a more rational level, reduce the likelihood of trade frictions, and create a fairer global development environment for the industry.

 

The Four Major Photovoltaic Leaders

Profit was written down by RMB 17.4 billion.

 

The shockwaves from the abolition of tax rebates have already rippled through every link in the industrial chain. The impact on different enterprises exhibits a pronounced pattern of divergence.

 

Among the export‑driven companies, the leading photovoltaic module manufacturers are undoubtedly the mainstay. Based on each company’s financial reports, PV Toutiao has compiled the following summary of tax and fee rebates:

 

 

In the first three quarters of 2025 alone, the four leading photovoltaic module manufacturers received tax and fee rebates totaling over RMB 2 billion. This accounts for roughly 4% of their operating cash inflows. In the full fiscal year 2024, LONGi Green Energy and JinkoSolar each received tax rebates exceeding RMB 5 billion, with overseas revenue accounting for 15.58% and 26.47%, respectively. Trina Solar and JA Solar also exceeded RMB 3 billion in tax rebates. Together, the four leading photovoltaic module manufacturers recorded tax rebates totaling RMB 17.428 billion; when combined with Tongwei, AE Solar, Hornding Dongci, Oriental Rise, Xinxin Integrated, and Canadian Solar, the aggregate tax rebates reached RMB 21.056 billion.

 

For photovoltaic companies operating at a loss, the elimination of export tax rebates is undoubtedly a “substantial blow.”

 

Of course, despite this, leading photovoltaic companies have remained relatively unfazed by the elimination of export tax rebates. Both LONGi Green Energy and Jinko Solar stated that the impact would be limited. One reason is that, following the reduction in export tax rebate rates at the end of 2024, many firms had already prepared by incorporating price‑adjustment clauses into their overseas orders, thereby effectively mitigating the risks associated with policy changes. In addition, Leading photovoltaic companies diversify their global production capacity to mitigate risks, while their technological and operational expertise helps offset the risks associated with export tax rebates through effective cost control.

 

For small and medium-sized enterprises lacking technological moats and cost-control capabilities, as well as for outdated production capacity, the impact is immediate. According to industry insiders, the recent elimination of export tax rebates, This translates to a reduction in export profits of RMB 46 to RMB 51 per 210‑R photovoltaic module. Coupled with rising prices for raw materials such as silver and aluminum, many small and medium-sized enterprises are facing sharply increased operational pressures. 。

 

At present, the industry is broadly experiencing a cash‑flow crunch, and profitability in overseas markets has been eroding. Even seizing the first‑quarter tax‑rebate window… How many companies can mobilize cash flow to stockpile inventory remains a very practical concern. . Therefore, following the issuance of the notice abolishing export tax rebates, some enterprises explicitly stated that, Inventory has sold out, and solar cell prices are changing daily; even with overseas orders, the factory is unable to accept them. 。

 

For photovoltaic auxiliary‑material companies such as Yubang New Materials, the long-term outlook for the PV industry remains positive, with the removal of export tax rebates seen as conducive to the sector’s healthy development. Meanwhile, Meichang Co., Ltd. stated that it will proactively adapt to policy changes.

 

 

After the export tax rebate was abolished

Value Reversion, Brand Globalization, and Globalization

 

Looking ahead to the post‑subsidy era, the photovoltaic industry’s primary growth trajectory has shifted from scale expansion to quality enhancement and value creation.

 

First, the core of industry competition will revert to technology and cost. ‌ Enterprises must maintain sustained investment in R&D to drive the iterative advancement of photovoltaic technologies. Clearly, the elimination of tax rebates will push up the prices of PV products; companies that rely on low‑quality, low‑price offerings to compete will inevitably be weeded out, while firms producing high‑value, high‑tech products will emerge victorious in the next round of competition.

 

Secondly, the “Made in China” brand image urgently needs to be repositioned. ‌ The abolition of export tax rebates objectively “can significantly curb the spillover effects of price wars,” compelling companies to shed the stigma of low‑price dumping. This policy will help the industry shift from price‑driven competition to high‑quality, value‑oriented rivalry, thereby enhancing the overall brand equity and premium‑pricing power of China’s photovoltaic sector.

 

Finally, the meaning of globalization will undergo profound evolution. ‌ The traditional “Made in China, Sold Globally” model is facing challenges, and deep integration—encompassing global R&D, global manufacturing, and global operations—will become the standard for leading companies. At the same time, the industry must explore more diversified business models and identify new growth drivers in downstream segments of the value chain, such as energy storage system integration and energy services.

 

Conclusion

 

From the State Administration for Market Regulation’s compliance guidance on price‑competition order in the photovoltaic industry, conducted in Hefei, Anhui, to its meetings with industry associations and relevant enterprises, and finally to the revocation of export tax rebates. The path toward “curbing internal competition” and “clearing excess capacity” in the photovoltaic industry is becoming increasingly clear: leveraging market‑based mechanisms to phase out outdated capacity, while driving iterative upgrades of advanced capacity and leading enterprises, thereby reshaping China’s trajectory of high‑quality PV development.

 

For this very reason, the short-term pain associated with export tax rebates is unavoidable, and a new round of consolidation in the photovoltaic industry is already well underway.

 

As the tide of policy recedes, what will ultimately remain on the shore are the true “swimmers”—those with deep technological expertise, a global outlook, and market resilience. 2026 may well mark a genuine inflection point for the industry; who will rebound from the bottom remains to be seen.

 

Source: PV Headlines